El vicepresident dels Estats Units, JD Vance, ha assenyalat la guerra contra l'Iran com el principal motiu de la derrota republicana a les eleccions de mig mandat d'aquest dimarts, que han suposat la pèrdua del control del Senat i la Cambra de Representants. "La veritable raó per la qual hem perdut és òbvia per a gairebé tothom", ha afirmat el número dos de la Casa Blanca en un extens missatge a les xarxes socials en què ha recordat que el mateix president, Donald Trump, ja havia apuntat al conflicte la nit anterior. "Si voleu dir que perdre el Senat durant els pròxims sis anys ha valgut la pena, endavant. Digueu que ha estat un preu que valia la pena pagar", ha manifestat. "Però tothom sap per què hem perdut. I qualsevol conversa sincera sobre el camí a seguir d'ara endavant ha de partir d'aquí", ha afegit.
El vicepresident nord-americà ha reconegut que els resultats l'han sorprès, tot i que ja afrontava les eleccions amb "pessimisme". Per explicar el comportament dels votants, Vance ha citat una enquesta que identifica quatre motius pels quals una part dels electors que van donar suport a Trump el 2024 han optat ara pels demòcrates: la voluntat de posar fi a la guerra, la preocupació pel cost de la vida i la inflació, la defensa del principi America First i el desig de replantejar les relacions dels Estats Units amb Israel. "Molts votants de Trump del 2024 estaven enfadats i planejaven votar candidats demòcrates", ha admès. Segons Vance, el problema no ha estat la manca de participació dels seus simpatitzants, sinó que una part d'aquests han canviat el sentit del vot precisament per aquestes quatre qüestions.
El vicepresident ha donat la raó als qui van alertar de l'impacte del conflicte sobre el suport a Trump, però els ha demanat que no abandonin el Partit Republicà. En lloc d'això, els ha instat a "canalitzar aquesta energia per votar els republicans que comparteixen la vostra visió del món". "Aprofitem aquesta ira i tornem a la tasca de salvar el nostre país", ha insistit, en una crida a recuperar el suport dels votants descontents amb les decisions de la Casa Blanca.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
Patacada històrica
Els demòcrates han aconseguit imposar-se en les eleccions de mig mandat amb uns resultats que han superat les seves expectatives més optimistes i els han permès recuperar el control de les dues cambres del Congrés. A més de la victòria legislativa, el partit ha protagonitzat triomfs històrics en les eleccions a governador d'estats com Texas, Ohio i Geòrgia, tradicionalment favorables als republicans. El resultat representa un revés de gran abast per a Trump i el seu partit, que veuen com els demòcrates reforcen la seva posició institucional en plena controvèrsia per la guerra contra l'Iran.