The CUP arrives at Catalonia's May 12th election at a very delicate moment. The radical-left pro-independence CUP - standing for Popular Unity Candidature - was at a low point in mid-March when the Catalan president, Pere Aragonès, made his call for Catalans to vote in a snap election this spring. Despite holding the key to pro-independence governability in the last Catalan Parliament, and exhibiting in Parliament the strength that the ballot boxes had given it in 2022 - with nine MPs, just one short of the anti-capitalists' best ever result - the last electoral cycle yielded results so disappointing that the party set in motion a refoundation process. What happened?
The 2021 Catalan election left the CUP in a good position. For the third consecutive time, the party held the key to the formation of a pro-independence government, and this time it had the incentive of being able to help anoint a figure from the Republican Left (ERC) as president and not a leader from the so-called post-Convergència space - the centre-right part of the independence movement - which had always been a source of irritation for a party which combines radical left-wing policies with a strong commitment to Catalan independence. The agreement with the Republicans was signed early, only a month after the election, and contained positive points for CUP interests, such as Pere Aragonès's commitment not to use the Mossos' BRIMO riot police unit in housing evictions, the creation of a public bank and the investment of 25% of the health budget in primary care. The relationship with the president, however, soon turned sour: the coalition with Together for Catalonia (Junts) moved Aragonès away from the path of the left and the points of the agreement began to be forgotten.
Seeing the drift that the government of the Generalitat was taking, the CUP soon went on the attack, accusing Pere Aragonès of "reproducing the same old policies" and acting as a "leader for business", to the point that they called on him to submit to a confidence question. The departure of Junts from the executive in 2022 did not help to remedy the situation, since the weakened ERC was forced to seek external support from its former partners as well as a Catalan Socialist (PSC) party which was making right-wing demands. That is how the demands for the Hard Rock resort, the expansion of Barcelona airport and the B-40 beltway came to be put on the table, with the ERC government desperate to pass its budget, while both Junts and the Socialists used their strength to impose their interests. In the middle of this three-way tug-of-war, the CUP had very little to say, and in fact excluded itself from the negotiation of the public accounts to avoid getting its hands dirty.
Two months, two electoral defeats
The precipitant for the current situation was in the municipal elections, held on May 28th last year. Although the CUP defines itself and claims to be an organization with a municipalist spirit, the public did not seem to see it the same way. In all of Catalonia, the CUP managed to secure only 4.43% of total votes, more than two points below the percentage obtained in the Catalan parliamentary elections of 2021 - although it was an increase of one point compared to the last local elections. The results were not particularly bad by some metrics, but were still recognized as a stumbling block. The most notable exception to the trend - reaching the mayoralty in the city of Girona - was not enough of an incentive, after having lost representation in Tarragona and having, for the second election in a row, been left out of the municipal councils in Barcelona and Lleida.
Immediately after those disorienting municipal results, Pedro Sánchez's call of a snap general election for two months later forced the anti-capitalist party to consider whether it was worth continuing, having managed to get their first MPs into the Spanish Congress at the first attempt in 2019. The CUP grassroots voted to run again, but the 61% in favour in the internal consultation, showed up the existence of a sizable number of members who did not see this option positively. And time ended up proving them right, because the CUP ended up losing 150,000 votes and both their two deputies in the general election of 2023, signifying another major setback. In less than two months, the polls had plunged the party into apathy and bewilderment.
An unfinished refoundation
The CUP then reacted, admitting its mistakes and quickly starting a process of refoundation. The so-called 'Procés de Garbí' began after admitting that it had not made a "good reading of the situation, [political] climate, exhaustion and tiredness", and consequently the party had not been "up to the task". For this reason, members were urged to "open a process of deep strategic debate on the Popular Unity project" and thus reorganize the ideological principles of the pro-independence left - always around the four pillars of socialism, independentism, feminism and environmentalism. The operation was not meant to be "a cosmetic exercise" to cover up the latest electoral defeats, but a true process of internal reform to return "an updated CUP capable of embracing the future".
This process was formally launched in October, and was planned to be long-term. The members of the national secretariat were tasked with drawing up a first refoundation document - based on the results of several debates that started at the beginning of this year - which would go on to be discussed internally, and then culminate with a National Assembly in the middle of 2024. The idea was to have the new CUP ready to face a Catalan election that seemed likely to be held when it was due, in early 2025. This gave a comfortable margin to publicize the new project and face the next date with renewed energies. But this plan was blown to pieces when the lack of a budget accord led Pere Aragonès to announce an early election in March, catching the CUP wrong-footed. Forced to put their refoundation process on pause without having it even remotely completed, the anti-capitalists arrive at the 12th May with a certain inevitable disorientation, recognized even by the candidate Laia Estrada.
The CUP changes from yellow to green
But this has not stopped them from facing the date at the polls with optimism, and the radical-left party has decided to take the bull by the horns. Catalan independence will once again be one of their main campaign points for May 12th, since, after a legislature dominated by the stagnation of the independence process, the CUP wants to turn these elections into a kind of independence plebiscite, in which a choice will have to be made between a politics "dependent on what the Spanish state says" or taking "a new course" towards Catalan sovereignty. Of course, the entry of former president Carles Puigdemont - the most visible face of the October 1st referendum - into the campaign as Junts's candidate could upset the CUP plans, since the part of the electorate which most supports unilateralism and democratic combat with the Spanish state could send its vote to this option.
That is why this time the CUP wants to promote another of its pillars: environmentalism. In fact, the green profile is one of the areas that the CUP wants to stress on May 12th. Presidential candidate Laia Estrada is from Tarragona, and has stood out in Parliament for her opposition to the Hard Rock macrocasino, as well as her fight against the Tarragona petrochemical complex. Beyond Estrada, the head of the list for Lleida will be Bernat Lavaquiol, agronomist and forestry engineer and spokesperson for the Stop the Winter Olympics platform, which played a prominent role when the Catalan government attempted to bring the Winter Games to Catalonia. The candidacy for Tarragona will be headed by geographer and environmental activist Sergi Saladié. And Dani Cornellà, president of the Parliament's climate action committee and activist for the energy transition, is the head of the list for Girona.
With this composition, the CUP seeks to bring into the Parliament of Catalonia a group of experts and activists who prioritize both the defence of the territory and the fight against this climate crisis. Indeed, Laia Estrada affirmed in her presentation as a candidate that "a radical change of model must be made", referring to the ecological threat. "Macro-projects must be stopped, tourist massification must be stopped, basic rights must be guaranteed for everyone and sovereignty and independence must be established to build this necessary change," she asserted. The final motto of her presentation set out the party's goal: "Let's defend the land, we know that another country is possible and we are going out to win."
Objective: survive and get the key
Despite that positive vibration, the reality is that the CUP electoral objective is not excessively high. The party considers it impossible to repeat its results of three years ago, and behind closed doors it proposes to survive and obtain its own parliamentary group. Most polls place the CUP as the party that will get the least representation, around five seats. It would not be an unknown situation for the CUP, which has previously coped with slim pickings at the polls - in 2012 it debuted with three seats, and after 2017 it was left with four. In any case, despite a limited presence in Parliament, the CUP are confident that the independence movement can overturn the predictions and reach an absolute majority again. If they do, no matter how disappointing the results of Laia Estrada's team, they are likely to once again have the key to a sovereignist government, for the fourth consecutive legislature. The question that the party would then have to consider would be the same as ever: is it worth supporting a government formed by Junts and ERC?