The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts), with candidacies led by Salvador Illa and Carles Puigdemont respectively, maintain a fairly loyal electorate. On the other hand, the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) - led by current Catalan president Pere Aragonès - is likely to shed voters to both of its main rivals in Catalonia's 12th May election, according to the survey prepared by the Feedback Institute for ElNacional.cat at the start of the two-week election campaign. In the main results published on Thursday, the poll survey predicted victory to Salvador Illa's PSC, with Junts as second-largest party and ERC in third position, but with the complexities of coalitions and alliances leaving in the air the question of who will eventually govern. In this installment, we look at the loyalty levels in the three leading parties.
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The Feedback survey analyzed the vote transfers among the three parties that dominated the rest in the last Catalan election (2021) and the last Spanish general election (2023): the PSC, ERC and Junts. Looking first at the Catalan parliamentary election on February 14th, 2021, the analysis shows that 68.9% of voters who voted for the PSC would do so again. Junts, led by the president-in-exile, Carles Puigdemont, would retain 65.8% of its voters from 2021. The Republicans, led by Pere Aragonès, would retain fewer voters - 51.0% of those who cast their vote for ERC three years ago. When respondents were asked about their vote in the Spanish general election of July 2023, Junts is the party with greatest voter loyalty: 74.3%, followed by the PSC, with 63.2%, and ERC, which would retain 42.9% of its 2023 voters.
Voters in the 2021 Catalan election
Looking now at all the balances of vote transfers involving those three parties since the Catalan elections of 2021, the PSC has won voters from the left-wing Comuns (13%), the People's Party (PP) (4.5%) and ERC (2.1%). On the other hand, it has lost voters to Junts (2.9%), far-right Vox (1.0%) and the Comuns (1.0%). Junts's gains come from ERC (5.6%), far-left pro-independence CUP (5.3%) and PSC (2.9%) while losses go to far-right pro-independence Aliança Catalana (AC) (2.3%). ERC has not attracted voters who chose other parties in 2021 and only registers losses of voters from the elections three years ago: it loses 5.6% to Junts, 3.5% to AC, 2.1% to the PSC and 0.7% to the Clara Ponsatí-led pro-independence party Alhora.
Voter loyalty to PSC, ERC and Junts (click on the tab at top to choose each one): For those who supported these 3 major parties at the 2021 Catalan election, which party would they vote for on May 12th this year?
Voters in the 2023 Spanish general election
If we perform a similar exercise on the balances of vote transfers this May 12th compared to the general election of 23rd July, 2023, the PSC incorporates former voters of left-wing Sumar-En Comú (6.8%), the PP (5.2% ) and ERC (1.3%). On the other hand, it loses voters to Junts (2.4%), to the Comuns (2.0%), to Vox (1.9%), to the CUP (1.3%), to AC (1.3%) and ERC (0.6%). As for Junts, it gains 10.9% from voters who chose ERC in the general election, 5% from the CUP, 3.4% from the Comuns and 2.4% from the PSC. The Puigdemont-led party's losses benefit AC: 2.6%. In turn, ERC adds 5.4% of voters from the Comuns and 0.6% from the PSC. But it also loses 10.9% to Junts, 3.2% to AC and 1.3% to PSC.
Voter loyalty to PSC, ERC and Junts (click on the tab at top to choose each one): For those who supported these 3 major parties at the 2023 Spanish general election, which party would they vote for on May 12th this year?