Those who have had any doubts should get them out of their heads: Together for Catalonia (Junts) will not give any breathing space to the newly appointed Catalan government of Pere Aragonès to start the second stage of the legislature. In case it wasn't clear enough, the Junts executive and the subsequent meeting of the parliamentary group have closed any possibility of this, and the most divisive positions have won the day, in line with the mandate of the party rank and file, who forced the party to abandon the coalition executive - by 56% to 42% - and move to the opposition. It remains to be seen what role En Comú Podem is to play, very irritated by the appointment of Gemma Ubasart, who was previously part of the political space of the alternative left group, which has already given up the government for dead; as well the role to be adopted by the Socialists of the PSC, who are enjoying their popcorn on the sidelines, awaiting the moment when the situation gets rotten enough that they can give the executive the coup de grace and force it to call an early election.
The composition of the new Catalan Republican Left (ERC) government certainly leaves some conflictive scenarios on the table. On the one hand, an overall assessment, which in general is not negative, of how Aragonès has resolved the crisis, with appointments whose political experience cannot be denied. From this point of view, Quim Nadal and Carles Campuzano bring know-how that was missing from the ERC beyond the current interior minister, Joan Ignasi Elena, who had also served in the PSC. Nadal and Campuzano are used to negotiating with Spanish governments - one as a former minister for seven years and the other from his 23-year experience in Congress - and Oriol Junqueras thus puts into practice one of the lessons he had yet to apply, incorporating political experience to face difficult situations. On the other hand, it is obvious that neither of them are active in the independence movement, and at most, advocate very nuanced Catalan sovereignist positions. A situation similar to that of Ubasart. The plan, therefore, is to try to improve the government's management rather than to deepen a pro-independence ideological position that has, indeed, been wavering. None of this, however, compensates for the current reality, which is that ERC has only 33 deputies out of the 135 seats in the Catalan Parliament, the most meagre government total that has ever existed in the Catalan chamber.
And therefore, we are going to witness a real head-on clash in which ERC will try to highlight the inconsistencies of Junts by asserting that from the opposition benches it is backing political positions that it has not occupied since 2012 when the independence process began and, on the other hand, a Junts that will repeat again and again that it sacrificed its postulates for the unity of independence and that now, in the opposition, it does not have to remain so corseted. This will surely affect issues as different as lowering taxes or supporting infrastructure like the airport, a tougher stance on squatters or support for the schools which are privately-run concertades. What some defend as a clearly pro-independence position with measures that are not at all left-wing. Almost none of these proposals has a path to progress in the current Parliament, yet one or two might find some space - such as the position in favour of the new runway at Barcelona's El Prat airport, with ERC and the Comuns against it.
In this situation of collision between pro-independence forces, Catalan Socialist leader Salvador Illa has given instructions to handle everything with kid-gloves and avoid a direct clash with the government. That moment has not yet arrived, although the Socialist machinery is ready for everything: from proposing a PSC candidate to cover the speaker's position in Parliament, which is now temporarily occupied by Alba Vergès (ERC), first deputy speaker, after the suspension of Laura Borràs, until a more radical eventuality like an early election arises. In any case, the municipal elections next May are at present too far away to guarantee that the Catalan executive will arrive at them in its current form, in a legislature that runs out at the end of 2023 - even harder to predict. After four more weeks have gone by, we will all have a much clearer idea about the political supports on both sides of the equation.