On the Monday that Catalan president Pere Aragonès signed the decree calling a snap election in Catalonia, the first polls have appeared with predictions for what statement the voters might make on 12th May. In this case, both NC Report for La Razón and the SocioMétrica poll for El Español - both of them conservative Spanish media outlets - forecast a clear victory for the Catalan Socialists (PSC). Both polls place Carles Puigdemont's party Together for Catalonia (Junts) in second place, with the current governing party, the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), slipping to third. Despite these coincidences, the two polls show certain differences. For example, according to SocioMétrica, the Socialist victory is more marked, with the expectation of 42 deputies - an increase of nine - in the 135 seat chamber. However, NC Report asserts that they will take between 36 and 37 seats. Thus, despite the nuances, both polls place the PSC's Salvador Illa as the single candidate closest to the Palau de la Generalitat.
The second most voted party in both polls is Junts, who overtake ERC. Junts, to decide in the next week whether Carles Puigdemont will be its candidate to lead Catalonia, is picked to get between 32 and 33 deputies, either the same or one more than in 2021, with 21% of the votes. Thus, the two survey results both suggest that Junts will manage to retain the loyalty of its voters, unlike ERC. The Republicans fall back to third place, taking 28 seats according to SocioMétrica and 31 seats for NC Report, losing deputies from their current haul of 33. They would receive 20% of votes cast, losing a proportion of their 2021 votes to other parties, mostly the PSC and the far-left pro-independence CUP, according to NC Report.
Despite the Socialists' upsurge in support, they are still far from the magic number of 68 seats which would enable them to govern alone. They are the best positioned numerically to reach governance agreements with other parties, and in the most optimistic scenario could make a deal with either Junts or ERC, without needing the support of the alternative-left Comuns, who have been key to achieving majority support for Catalan budgets in recent years but are predicted by these polls to lose gas this time around. En Comú Podem would fall from the current 8 seats to 5-6, with some alternative left voters defecting to the PSC and ERC.
Pro-independence parties have already begun to show a preference for repeating the pro-independence majority that they won in 2021 - with ERC, Junts and the CUP collectively winning over 50% and a majority of seats. The question is: if there's a will, is there a way? The CUP, having lost support in last year's election and currently immersed in a refoundation process, falls in the polls from the current total of nine deputies to between four and seven seats. In the most optimistic scenario presented by NC Report, the sum of Junts, ERC and CUP could obtain a total of 71 pro-independence deputies: a comfortable majority. On the other hand, according to SocioMétrica's predictions, the three current parliamentary parties in favour of an independent Catalonia do not have a majority at present, with just 65 seats. Could there be other pro-independence parties that might win seats or further fragment the vote? The new electoral project of Clara Ponsatí and Jordi Graupera, under the name of Alhora, is one that has asserted its intention to run.
The growth of the PP
The biggest change in the Catalan lower house forecast in these two newspapers is the recovery of the People's Party (PP), rising spectacularly from its current three seats to 12-13 MPs. In other words, the Spanish conservatives would add around 10 MPs and become the fourth most voted force, surpassing Vox. However, the far-right party would only lose some of its strength in Catalonia in the election, falling from 11 seats to 9-10 representatives. The key to this is that the PP growth does not come from Vox voters, but from Ciudadanos (Cs). The party that was the largest party in Catalonia in the 2017 elections, and went into free fall in the years that followed, is currently engaged in study with the PP on some kind of electoral confluence between the two. Meanwhile, NC Report sees Cs as likely to lose most of the votes it won in 2021, the great bulk of them to the PP and other groups heading for the PSC and Vox. On their own, they are not predicted to win seats in Parliament. A far cry from 2017, when they won 37.
GESOP poll gives Junts and ERC a tie in second place
A third poll released this Monday also predicts the PSC to win the Catalan election but it forecasts a tie for second place between Junts and ERC. That's the forecast of the GESOP polling agency for the Catalan newspaper El Periódico. The distance between the three parties is narrow - just five percent - leaving the situation wide open in the eight weeks until the election. The pro-independence majority in Parliament is likely to disappear, it predicts, and the ERC would become the key players in tilting the balance of governability. Also noteworthy - as with today's earlier polls - is the significant growth of the PP and the disappearance of Ciutadans.
Salvador Illa's Socialists would be the leading force in Parliament, with 23.8% of the votes and 35-38 seats (currently 33) - which would represent a slight upward trend (one percent) compared to the 2021 election. In second place, Junts and ERC would tie at 29-32 deputies, but Carles Puigdemont's party would achieve a few more votes: 18.5%, compared to 18% of the Pere Aragonès candidacy. In the case of the Republicans, they would lose three percent of their support and up to four seats (currently, they have 33). As for the post-convergents, they would fall back by 1.3 points and up to three parliamentarians (they now have 32).