Most Spanish opinion polls published in recent days and weeks have pointed to a recovery of the right, which, if they reached a deal with the far right, could even reach the Moncloa government palace if an election were held now. The majority of surveys are in agreement on this trend, but the exception is the just-released poll by the Spanish government's own CIS opinion research agency, which in a survey carried out this month of September poll widens, by five more points, the lead that it previously attributed to the Socialists (PSOE) of Pedro Sánchez over the Popular Party (PP) of Pablo Casado in July. The survey was conducted on a sample of 4,000 respondents between 1st and 13th September, coinciding with Catalonia's Diada and also with the highest electricity prices ever recorded in Spain, when the Spanish executive had not yet given any response on the matter.
According to this poll, if elections were held today, Pedro Sánchez's PSOE would win them again easily, with 29.6% of the vote, one percent more than two months ago. Pablo Casado's PP would fall by almost three percent, with 20.5% of the vote. Thus, the distance between the two would increase from 5.2% in July to 9.1% in September. Far-right Vox would continue to be the third force, with 13.8%, and would gain only 0.2% compared to the last survey. And Unidas Podemos would be fourth, with 11.3%, recovering lost ground with a rise of 0.7%. In fifth place would be Ciudadanos, which would add a whole one percent, to reach 6.5%.
Looking at the political blocs on the left and right, it would again be close. The parties of the current Spanish government, the PSOE and Unidas Podemos, would achieve a combined total of 40.9% of the vote. This percentage represents 1.7% more than in the July poll, although it should be noted that it only takes into account the two governing parties, and not the other minor parties which prop up the current Spanish government. For its part, the sum of the PP, Vox and Ciudadanos would fall to 40.8%. This is the first CIS survey in months that places the two partners in the Moncloa palace above the three parties of the right.
As for the Catalan independence parties, their order on the opinion poll podium is not altered. ERC remains the leading pro-independence force in Congress, with a voting intention of 3.2% (measured over the Spanish state as a whole), down 0.1%. For its part, Junts would get 1.5% of the vote, down 0.4%. The CUP would rise 0.1%, to 0.8%. In the Basque Country, the nationalists of the PNV would get 1.3% (0.1% less than in July) and pro-independence EH Bildu would achieve 0.9% (a 0.2% rise).
Everyone gets a fail
As for the ratings given political leaders, as usual, none of the main Spanish party heads pass the examination of the opinion surveys. But, as in previous polls, a curious circumstance occurs. The second deputy PM, Yolanda Díaz, with 4.6 out of 10, comes in ahead of the Spanish PM, Pedro Sánchez, who gets a score of 4.5. Behind them are Íñigo Errejón (4.2), Inés Arrimadas (3.6), Pablo Casado (3.4) and, in last place, the far-right Santiago Abascal (2.7).
As for the assessment of management of the Covid pandemic, Pedro Sánchez here takes the highest mark, with a 4.9, followed by Díaz with 4.7, Errejón (4.2) , Casado and Arrimadas (both 3.6) and Abascal (2.8).