Spain is going to the polls in a month's time for a snap general election after PM Pedro Sánchez failed to pass his proposed budget. Below, we publish the key results of a poll carried out by Feedback for El Nacional, based on 800 telephone surveys carried out between 21st and 26th March. If it bears out, it would mean all change for the Catalan seats in the Congress in Madrid. Left-wing, pro-independence Esquerra Republicana de Catalonia (ERC) would win a Spanish election in Catalonia for the first time since the Second Spanish Republic, before the Franco dictatorship. To do so, they just edge PSC, the Catalan branch of Sánchez's party, into second place, whilst 2016's winners, left-wing En Comú-Podem, falls sharply.
Going into the details, ERC would gain 14 seats in the new Congress, 5 more than they have now, on 24.33% of the vote. Their leader is Oriol Junqueras, one of the imprisoned pro-independence leaders currently on trial in the Supreme Court in Madrid.
En Comú-Podem, led by Jaume Asens, currently one of mayor Ada Colau's key supporters in Barcelona, suffers a serious collapse: Xavier Domènech won 12 seats and first place in 2016, now they're on track for only 4 (10.73%) and fifth place.
PSC comes second in our survey, with current Spanish territorial policy minister Meritxell Batet heading their list of candidates for Barcelona. They would rise from 7 seats to 12-13, and 23.24% of the vote, just shy of ERC.
Ciudadanos would come third with 13.23% and 6-7 seats, Inés Arrimadas seeing less success in her jump to national politics than she had in the 2017 Catalan Parliament election, when her party came first with 25.4% of the vote.
Fourth place would be Junts per Catalunya on 7 deputies and 12.29%. Their candidacy is headed up by Jordi Sànchez, another of the prisoners currently on trial in Madrid. In some ways the political heirs of the now-defunct CDC, they would get one seat fewer than that party did in 2016.
PP, under Madrid aristocrat Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, is the second party that would lose all but a third of the seats they won in 2016: they'd be down to 2 seats and 6.84%.
Front Republicà, the new left-wing, anti-capitalist coalition put together after CUP refused to stand for Madrid, would get 1 seat and 4.21%. That would place it ahead of far-right Vox, who would also get a single seat, but only 2.96% of the vote. They stood in 2016 without winning a seat, getting only 198 votes in Catalonia.
The results predict a turnout of 71.08%, with 32.1% undecided, something that could prove key as the election campaign gets underway.