Radical change in Spanish voting intention. The Sánchez effect has seen PSOE shoot up in the first survey from the Spanish Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) after the motion of no-confidence in Mariano Rajoy which made him prime minister. PSOE, with an estimated 29.9% vote share, are now almost 10 points ahead of PP and Cs, tied on 20.4%. Unidos Podemos, however, come fourth, only achieving 15.6% if including allied parties.
The differences from the last results in April are clear. Whilst PSOE shoots up 7.9 points, PP falls 3.6 and Cs 2. Unidos Podemos also fall, by 4 points.
In Catalonia, ERC gains 0.9 points and PDeCAT loses 0.4. The survey doesn't break down the Spain-wide parties by autonomous community, however, so we cannot say what the full results in Catalonia would be. That said, of the Catalan parties, ERC would be first, followed by En Comú Podem with PDeCAT coming last.
CIS also published the raw data, the percentage of respondents who said they would vote for each party if there were to be an election tomorrow. In that case, PSOE's lead increases further still. 23.9% of those surveyed would vote for the party, as opposed to 11.3% for Cs ahead of 10.2% for PP. They would be followed by Podemos on 8.9%.
The research was carried out during the first fortnight of July, when PP was still in the middle of its leadership contest. As such, it doesn't include any effects of the eventual election of Pablo Casado.
Scandals like Cristina Cifuentes's master's and Gürtel, the sentence on which led to the motion of no-confidence, saw PP fall in the polls, with them now dropping behind PSOE. It remains to be seen how the party's change of leadership will affect this in the future and how PSOE will fare after the summer as it tackles matters like a 2019 budget.