The currently governing PP party would come fourth with 63 seats in new elections to the Spanish Congress. Cs would be first with 108, PSOE second with 85 and Podemos third with 66, according to a new survey by online newspaper El Español. If true, this would mean PP would lose half their seats; they now have 137 deputies.
Mariano Rajoy's party would lose 74 seats, again earning the votes of half those who voted for them two years ago. The others would vote for making Cs' Albert Rivera prime minister, choose to abstain, or go for other parties, like the far-right Vox, which could earn its first seat.
The survey was based on 1,700 interviews, the majority of which, according to the paper, were carried out on Friday and Saturday. As such, they happened after the release of the sentence in the Gürtel affair and PSOE announced they would bring a motion of no-confidence against Rajoy.
Rajoy isn't the only one affected by a scandal: Podemos would lose five seats to get 66, three more than PP. Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero, leaders of the left-wing party, came under fire for moving into a large chalet, which some said contradicted their party's values.
PP has steadily lost support since the last general election in 2016 thanks to the various corruption scandals hounding them. In just one month, the party has seen the resignation of the president of Madrid, Cristina Cifuentes, the arrest of Eduardo Zaplana, former minister and ex-president of Valencia, under investigation for money-laundering, and the sentence in the Gürtel affair. The result of all these cases is the motion of no-confidence the prime minister now faces.
Voting intention
PP would also come fourth in vote share. 22.2% of respondents said they would vote for Cs if an election were held tomorrow, 14.9% said PSOE, 14.7% Podemos and only 13.3% PP.
Despite Cs victory, PP's fall would mean they wouldn't reach an absolute majority between them: they would have 171 deputies, needing 176. On the other hand, PSOE and Podemos wouldn't get their either, only totalling 151 seats. The only two-party coalition possible would be Cs and PSOE, who would get 193 between them.
La Razón gives PP the victory
La Razón has also published a survey with PP losing support, but not to the extent El Español found. That said, the majority of their interviews were carried out before the Gürtel sentences were announced. In this case, PP get between 105 and 109 deputies, PSOE between 90 and 93, Cs between 78 and 81 and Podemos between 47 and 51.