A tough blow for the independence movement. According to the latest Omnibus poll from Catalonia's CEO public polling agency, the Catalan sovereignty movement has lost momentum. Only 38.8% want Catalonia to become an independent state, the survey finds. On the other hand, those Catalans who oppose independence comfortably exceed half the population: 53.5% said 'no' to independence from the Spanish state. A difference, then, of 14.7 percent. Beyond that, 7.9% of people do not know their position or did not answer. The study was conducted between November 17th and December 17th, 2021, and was based on 1,200 respondents.
The data marks a considerable contrast with previous studies. In May 2021, for example, opposition to independence was already ahead of the pro-independence movement. The CEO's survey at that time noted that the 'no' to independence option was the choice of 48.7%, compared to 44.9% in favour of a Catalan state. A difference of 3.8 points, which has now multiplied significantly to 14.7 points, a difference more in line with poll findings from the years prior to the independence process. A far cry from October 2017, when, at the height of the independence process which culminated in the October 1st referendum and Declaration of Independence, supporters of establishing an independent Catalan state were well ahead in the official polls. However, since the middle of 2019, CEO polls have found the 'no' vote to be ahead - by varying single-figure margins, until now.
Junts, the most in favour
In terms of support by parties, there are not many surprises. Thus, Junts is the most pro-independence political party, with 93.2% support, and only 6% against. The CUP is second, with 85.7% in favour and 8.2% rejecting it. And ERC contains the most contradictions: 82.1% want independence, but 14.3% of those who support this pro-independence party actually oppose independence. As for the other parties, it is clear that Vox has the strongest resolve against independence, with 100% of respondents opposing it.
A broad consensus wants a referendum
Despite the bad results for Catalan independence in the yes/no preference, the survey does find broad support across Catalan society for a referendum that will allow Catalans to speak out and exercise their right to self-determination. In total, 72.6% of Catalans are in favour of holding a referendum on independence (37.8% strongly agree and 34.8% agree). Beyond that, only 19.1% oppose such a vote, while 4.8% do not opt for either option. All in all, it shows the breadth of support that this proposal enjoys in Catalonia, despite the questioning it has received, not only from the parties of Spanish right, but also from the Socialists - that is, Spain's PSOE and its Catalan branch, the PSC.