In case anyone thought that the campaign for the May 12th election would be one in which Catalonia's 'national' issues would remain in the closet, the proposal of the president of Catalonia, Pere Aragonès, even formulating what his question would be for an independence referendum agreed with the Spanish state, has derailed much of the analysis of the Spanish unionist commentators, stubbornly pushing to bring the hustings closer to the frames of reference of a Spanish election than a Catalan one. It is possible that the entry into the electoral fray of president-in-exile Carles Puigdemont has overturned party strategies - that of his own Together for Catalonia (Junts) as well as those of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and the Catalan Socialists (PSC). The fact is that the early election called by Aragonès due to the impossibility of moving forward with the Generalitat budget for 2024, with which he also, to say the least, put Puigdemont's candidacy into "check", seems to have had two opposite effects: in ERC, that of strengthening its most pro-independence discourse, the Republican light which it has shone most dimly for these last three years; and, in the case of Junts, to allow room in its party profile for a Catalonia in which political management turns into something important.
It was said by someone that this Tuesday, Puigdemont and Aragonès exchanged roles. The former started the day by announcing the addition to its list for Barcelona at number two of the Olot-born business leader Anna Navarro y Descals, better known as Anna Navarro Schlegel (her married name), who resides in the United States, and was chosen in 2020 as the world's most influential woman in technology, according to Analytics Insight, leading US publication in artificial intelligence, big data and analytics. She is also considered one of the most brilliant figures in Silicon Valley. Over the past 30 years, she has led teams responsible for globalization, PLC, engineering, international product, technical content, corporate strategy and marketing at major Silicon Valley technology companies including Cisco Systems, Google, VeriSign, VMware, Xerox and NetApp. Undoubtedly, it is a deft stroke and a way to banish the image that, accompanying the independence bid, there was no political project.
At noon, Aragonès countered, with a previously-announced media appointment, at the Palau de la Generalitat, in which he took advantage of the assignment he had commissioned from the Institute of Self-Government Studies, based on the expert committee's report for the Clarity Agreement, and proposed that, using Article 92 of the Spanish Constitution, an independence referendum be agreed with the Spanish state with the following question: "Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state?" The fact that he took this step in the middle of the electoral campaign reduces the impact it could have had at another time of his presidency, but, having said that, it is also obvious that ERC does not want to leave Puigdemont as the only one with his hands on national flags and the entire self-determination folder. In this regard, the agreed referendum is the only way after not having been able to implement the mandate of October 1st, 2017, but it is not on the horizon in the short term, nor is there a sufficient parliamentary majority to carry it out.
It is obvious that ERC does not want to leave Puigdemont as the only one with his hands on national flags and the entire self-determination folder
As I said when the election was called, this campaign will be the most contested in Catalonia in recent years. Above all, because three candidates have almost everything at stake. Salvador Illa, Carles Puigdemont and Pere Aragonès will come away from May 12th in one condition or a very contrasting one. All three, in theory, only benefit from victory. Even the ERC candidate, currently the farthest from winning, needs to stand his ground until the very end, since only José Montilla, in 2010, has lost an election having presented himself as the president for re-election. But Illa will never have been so close to victory after spending the legislature having his fingertips on a triumph that he already achieved in 2021, even if it did not allow him to be president. And the case of Puigdemont, with the unequivocal prospect of his return, is not comparable to his leadership of the list in 2017 and 2021, when already in exile in Belgium. Now, he needs, no matter what, to come out victorious not only against ERC but also over the PSC.