One way of analyzing election campaigns and knowing who is the candidate to beat is to look at who is the main receiver of the barbs thrown among the candidates. Normally, this central role tends to be taken by whoever holds power, the incumbent president whose ousting is the goal of the opposition parties. Pedro Sánchez, in the case of the last Spanish election, or Ada Colau, in the municipal elections of a year ago. In the case of the Catalan election on May 12th, this is not exactly the case. In part, because the person occupying the Generalitat palace was not the winner of the 2021 election - the victory went to Salvador Illa, although he did not get support for his investiture - but also because, whatever the final result, the reference point of Carles Puigdemont in the campaign and the symbolism of Catalan political exile since 2017, at least for an important part of the independence movement, distorts everything. For now, at least.
This campaign is, at this point, mainly about whether Puigdemont wins or loses, and this was not the framing imaginable when president Aragonès called the election, surprisingly, on March 13th. This does not mean that the president-in-exile will have an easy campaign, because his adversaries are also playing and have good cards in their hands. Illa retains the strength of having won the last municipal and Spanish elections, which were particularly satisfactory for the Catalan Socialists (PSC). All the polls without exception give him first position, although he runs into difficulties in surpassing the figure of 40 deputies. The Republican Left (ERC), for its part, has the machinery of the Catalan government in its favour, and if that was a very powerful electoral weapon for Pujol, Maragall or Mas, it is obviously also so for Aragonès. Not to mention the party's municipal structure and the fact that it is well-tuned for electoral combat.
At this point, the campaign is about whether Puigdemont wins or loses, and this was not the framing imaginable when Aragonès surprisingly called the election
Just this Tuesday, I read the following headlines in different media: "Vilagrà [Catalan presidency minister] asserts that Puigdemont's lack of policies is his reason for refusing a debate with Aragonès". "Rebuke from Aragonès to Puigdemont: '10 months ago they said that negotiating was a betrayal of the country and now they are doing it'". "The PSC attacks Puigdemont: 'Catalonia has already overcome personalisms'". And these last ones: "The CUP celebrates the return of Puigdemont [referring to the announcement of his return], but warns that independence does not depend on that". "Alejandro Fernández accuses Puigdemont of talking only about 'his movements' and refuses to talk to Junts: 'It's [the level of] Sesame Street'". Or the recent post from Carlos Carrizosa, of Ciudadanos, with the party's electoral poster calling for the arrest of Sánchez and Puigdemont. We could go on, but this selection is more than enough to get an idea.
The most surprising thing is the PSC's comment, because it deserves a whole debate about personalisms versus leaderships, since very often they are not easy to separate. Was the leadership of Pasqual Maragall not nourished by a strong personalism? If not, how do you understand, first, the dispute of the ex-president and ex-mayor of Barcelona with the PSC and, finally, his break with them? Another example: no one embodies a greater dose of personalism in Spanish politics than Pedro Sánchez. Even his predecessor, Felipe González, has been accused of not having a national project and destroying the party. The truth is that next to Pedro Sánchez, in terms of personalisms, they are all, at the very least, poor outsiders.