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The departure of Pablo Iglesias from the political front line in two phases - first leaving the position of second deputy PM of the Spanish government, later resigning from his seat on the Assembly of Madrid and finally giving up his party positions within Unidas Podemos - has been accompanied, as we are seeing, by the uncontrolled decomposition of the alternative left political grouping. Unidas Podemos is breaking up at the periphery, Catalonia, Valencia, Andalusia, the Canary Islands; which, in addition to being bad news for the party itself, since Hondt's law always benefits the larger parties, is a huge danger for the PSOE.

The latest polls published, especially those in the right-wing print newspapers, whose surveys end up being the most consistent in the demographic world, portray two types of battles: the first for electoral victory and, here, Pablo Casado's Popular Party (PP) seems solidly placed in pole position ahead of a Socialist (PSOE) party that carries too much baggage despite the short time it has been in office. The Socialists are paying for measures that have an enormous electoral cost, such as the unstoppable escalation in the price of electricity, rises in energy products and clearly increasing inflation that reduces citizens' purchasing power but in particular hurts the most disadvantaged sectors of society.

The PP needs little in order to grow, above all having to avoid too many mistakes and to leave the Socialists hanging on the cross of the economic situation, which could even get worse. The governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernández de Cos, in an appearance this Monday before the budget committee of the Congress of Deputies, has warned that GDP will not grow as much this year as the Spanish government estimates and that there will be a significant downward revision in its increase, which the Sánchez executive has situated at 6.3%.

The second battle is between Vox and Podemos. Although the far-right party is slipping downwards, the disintegration of the Unidas Podemos space is going faster even than the retreat of Santiago Abascal's grouping. So much so that, with the exception of the CIS, the polls published give PP and Vox options to obtain an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies. It is the first time that this possibility has appeared as a possible result in an election in Spain.

There would be many victims in such a scenario, but especially the pro-independence forces. The repression currently experienced would be reinforced and the possibility of parties being made illegal would cease to be a distant prospect. Today these things are just hypotheses, but they cannot be ruled out. The best way to defend this political space, which is that of the majority in Catalonia, is not to assimilate to the other parties but to propose its own differentiated agenda that makes visible the defence of Catalan interests. All of them. Linguistic issues, through the audiovisual law and quotas in favour of Catalan on audiovisual platforms, but also the economic concerns which are at stake through failures in budget compliance - less money than Catalonia should get, and a rate of execution far below that of Madrid - and in infrastructures, with the transfer of control of Suburban Rail.

The battle for the suburban trains justifies a yes or a no to the budget, as in the final event it is at the core of what it means to have power or not to have it. That's why Madrid resists so much and that's why Catalonia has to fight to the end.