The fact that after many years a mayor of Barcelona has managed to obtain a pass mark in the municipal barometer - even if, in the case of Jaume Collboni, it is with a 5.1 and puts him in third place behind Ernest Maragall (5.3) and Xavier Trias (5.2) - has a lot to do with the number of decibels that the tension has lowered in the Catalan capital and the artificial bipolarization created by his predecessor, Ada Colau. For four years, the previous mayor was given a fail in all the municipal barometers - this time, too, with 4.3 out of 10 - and although many of the problems remain, what Barcelona residents recognize is that the climate is different and for this to have happened in such a short period is considered enough. The fact that the rival forces have been left without their figureheads must also undoubtedly help: Maragall leaves the city council this week, Trias will do so in the first months of next year, while Colau, with no known destination, although with a certain background rumour that her future could be in Europe, is not serving as leader of either a governing party or the opposition.
But if the appraisal of the Catalan Socialist (PSC) leader is good, he has two major problems ahead of him. The first, decide with whom to govern the Catalan capital, since his ten councillors are very far from enough to allow him to continue alone. They provide an interim status quo in which major issues cannot be approved, while permitting the announcement to be delayed for a few months, but are good for little else. He has not hidden his preference for a city government with Barcelona en Comú (Comuns) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) although, on the other hand, many measures have been passed in recent months with the votes of the Trias per Barcelona grouping. This type of balancing act cannot last for many more months, since neither one side nor the other is going to settle for having a foot in each camp and he will have to choose, something that with the Catalan elections on the horizon will also have its importance.
The Trias phenomenon disappears from the equation, since despite his electoral victory on May 28th, he is not mayor and neither will he be a candidate again
If this problem is significant and will mark the course of his mandate, the enormous concern over the issue of law and order is no less important. A total of 27.7% of Barcelona residents consider it the main problem and, what is more serious, it is already becoming visible as a key point when it comes to attracting foreign companies of a certain size or senior managers. You only need to look closely at what is being said in the business associations to see that it is far more than an anecdote and that Barcelona is also very disadvantaged by comparisons with Madrid, where the list of grievances is headed by issues of cleanliness, traffic and pollution and they assess their law and order at an excellent 7.3.
Although it's true that the question of who would win a municipal election must be put in perspective, the forecast made must not be ignored either. It is evident that the Trias phenomenon has disappeared from the equation, since despite his electoral victory on May 28th, he is not mayor and neither will he be a candidate again. Given this circumstance, Together for Catalonia (Junts) returns to its fourth position, behind the PSC, BComú and ERC. That is not so strange, since before former mayor Trias stepped forward and accepted the candidacy, the party of Carles Puigdemont and Jordi Turull was polling within these same parameters. It is evident that inertia is not going to return them to their position of May and they have to reflect on this. The second place recorded by the Comuns is also consistent with the strength the party has shown in Barcelona since 2015 and ERC improves its position fundamentally because Trias stole its support in May, and without Trias, many voters now return to their more natural position.