The two main surveys released straight after the closure of the polls in this Sunday's Spanish general election coincide in awarding victory to the Socialists (PSOE), with the right unable to form a tripartite alternative government. The largest survey, carried out by the GAD3 firm between 22nd and 27th April on 13,000 respondents, predicts a victory for the Pedro Sánchez's Socialists which will win thirty more seats than in 2016 to reach a total of 116-121 in the 350-seat Congress. The fragmentation of the right damages the Popular Party (PP), which loses sixty deputies but remains in second place with 69-73 seats.
Behind them, Ciudadanos (Cs) take 48-49 seats in the poll, up from 32 in 2016. Unidas Podemos fall to fourth place, with 42-45 deputies - from their previous total of 71. The far-right Vox party erupts into the Spanish Congress with 36-38 seats.
Of the Basque parties, the PNV gains one deputy to reach 6, whereas Bildu maintains its 2 current deputies. Navarra Suma (coalition of the Unión del Pueblo Navarro, Ciudadanos and Partido Popular de Navarra ) takes 2 deputies, while the Canary Coalition and Compromís get one seat each.
ERC wins in Catalonia
In Catalonia, the Republican Left (ERC) wins and moves from its current total of 9 deputies to 13-14. The second most-voted party is the Catalan Socialists (PSC) with 12-13 seats and, thirdly, En Comú Podem with 8 seats. Cs take 5 deputies, tying with JxCat which falls from the 8 deputies won by CDC in 2016.
The PP wins 2 seats in Catalonia and Vox and Front Republicà manage to enter the Spanish chamber with one deputy each.
Who could govern?
Even given the most beneficial reading of these results in cases where the prediction is not exact, they completely rule out a right-wing coalition in Spain, since PP-Cs-Vox would be left with a maximum of 160 seats, far from the absolute majority of 176. Thus, the only party with options of forming the government is the PSOE, but it would need support from from the left-wing Unidas Podemos and the Catalan pro-independentist parties - or at least, ERC.
The GAD3 survey is the basis for the election-night predictions made by Catalonia's TV3 and Spain's public broadcaster RTVE. A second survey, conducted by IMOPinsights for the COPE radio network with 4,800 interviews in the last week, also predicts a broadly similar result - a PSOE victory and an insufficient result from the right to make a three-way coalition possible between PP, Cs and Vox. However, among the differences, the COPE survey suggests a much higher number of deputies could be won by Vox, with up to 50 seats, which might send them into fourth or even third place.