The pro-independence Catalan Republican Left (ERC) would win the Catalan elections if they were held now, followed closely by their pro-independence allies Together for Catalonia (JxCat), but the total vote for pro-independence parties would not reach 50%, the figure which has been set as a goal. The sum of support for the three pro-independence parties (ERC, Junts and the left-wing Popular Unity Candidature - the CUP) would remain at 47.7%, according to a survey by the Catalan public polling agency, CEO.
The poll places ERC as the leading force in Parliament with between 35 and 36 seats, and 23.4% of the vote. In second place would be JxCat with 31-32 deputies and 19.4% of the support, and third position would go to the Catalan Socialists (PSC) with 24-25 seats. Ciudadanos (Cs) who placed first in the December 2017 election could end up losing 20 deputies, to be left with 16-17; the Comuns, left-wing allies of Podemos, would get 8-9; the right wing Popular Party (PP) would go up to 7-8 seats, the CUP would rise to 6-7, and far-right Vox would enter the Catalan Parliament with between 4 and 6 seats.
Despite not reaching the symbolic figure of 50% of the vote, the sum of the three pro-independence parties would again achieve an absolute majority of seats, estimated at between 72 and 75; although there could also be a hypothetical alternative centre-left majority by adding the seats of ERC, the PSC and the Comuns if those three parties all reached the high end of their prediction ranges (yielding a total of 70 deputies), with a majority in Parliament requiring 68 votes.
Thus, with these results ERC has slightly increased the slim advantage it had over JxCat in July’s poll. At that time, ERC was picked to win between 33 and 34 deputies, and Puigdemont's JxCat between 32 and 33.
However, the results of the two current Catalan government partners are expected by the poll to remain quite similar to what they obtained in the elections of December 21st, 2017, in which JxCat was ahead with 34 seats, followed by ERC with 32. The major change since then is on the unionist side of the fence, with Cs expected to fall from 36 seats to between 16 and 17. The PSC would experience a change in the opposite direction, from the current total of 17 deputies, Pedro Sánchez's Catalan Socialist partners would rise to 24 or 25.
Surge in 'Yes to independence' vote
In response to the simple binary question in independence ('Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state?'), support for separation from Spain has grown considerably since the last CEO poll in July, from 42.0% to 45.5%. In contrast, the 'No' to independence has fallen during the last few months of 20202, from 50.5% to 46.3%, that is, 0.8% above the 'Yes' vote.
Catalan and Spanish governments, poorly rated on the pandemic
In the CEO's survey, Catalans also assessed the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic by the public administrations and gave the Catalan government an average rating of 4.87 out of 10. The Spanish government scored even worse, with an average rating of 4.15.