A stroll to electoral victory. The Catalan Republican Left (ERC) would, for the first time, win a Catalan election - and they would win it easily, according to the results of a survey on the Catalan political scene by Institut Feedback for ElNacional.cat. In the predicted scenario, ERC would be strong enough to choose between Together for Catalonia (JxCat) and the Catalan Socialists (PSC) to form a government. At the same time, the current majority of the pro-independence bloc (ERC, JxCat and the CUP) would be greatly expanded and for the first time it would exceed 50% of the votes.
If the election were held now, the Republicans would finish first with 41-42 seats and second place would be contested by JxCat, with 28, and the PSC, with 26-28. The CUP (Popular Unity Candidatures) would get eight deputies and the left-wing En Comú Podem, seven. Ciudadanos (Cs), the leading force in seats in the 2017 elections, would collapse, to win only 12-13 seats. The right-wing Popular Party (PP) would go up, with six MPs, and the far-right Vox would enter the Catalan chamber with five seats.
The survey was based on a sample of 800 telephone interviews conducted between June 29th and July 2nd and has a margin of error of 3.54%.
The poll, however, shows a very high number of undecided voters: 50.5%. The reason is none other than the extreme uncertainty that hangs over the electoral calendar: in the first place, elections could be called as early as autumn, when the Supreme Court is expected to remove the Catalan president Quim Torra from office after considering his appeal against his disobedience conviction; and secondly, the reconfiguration of the JxCat political space, led by Catalan president in exile Carles Puigdemont, is underway and will be defined this July.
ERC overtakes two competitors
ERC is expected to increase its ranks by 9-10 deputies, from the 32 it obtained in 2017, when it finished a narrow third, to 41-42, its best result in a Catalan parliamentary election since 1980. The party led by Oriol Junqueras and Pere Aragonés would, according to the El Nacional.cat poll, jump ahead of two of its rivals: it would displace Ciudadanos as the leading force in terms of seats, and it would also beat the Puigdemont-led space - for now, known as JxCat - in the on-going battle for hegemony over the pro-independence sector.
In percentage of votes won, ERC would rise 6 points on the previous election, from 21.4% to 27.4%. On the other hand, JxCat would suffer a significant decline: it would fall from 34 to 28 seats (6 fewer), and would become the third-ranked force by percentage of votes behind the PSC, with 17.8%, saying goodbye to its current two-seat advantage over ERC, which would become a 13-14 seat deficit.
If, as expected, president Puigdemont, exiled in Belgium, becomes a candidate again, he would, under this scenario, lose in Catalonia for the first time in his rivalry with ERC's Oriol Junqueras, imprisoned in Lledoners, whom he defeated in the Catalan parliamentary elections of 2017 and in the European elections of 2019.
Socialists up, Ciudadanos down
The third largest party in the new parliament by number of seats would be the PSC led by Miquel Iceta, which would go from 17 to 26-28, being the main beneficiary of the collapse of Cs. By percentage of votes, the Socialists would in fact finish second in the elections, with 19.7% - almost 6% more than in 2017.
The big loser in the election would be Ciudadanos. After winning 37 seats in 2017, when led by Inés Arrimadas - finishing as the largest party but part of the losing, unionist bloc - they are now expected to suffer a heavy blow under the leadership of Lorena Roldán, winning only 12-13 seats.
A larger CUP, but less decisive
The CUP is expected to finish fourth, doubling its strength in Parliament: from 4 to 8. Yet the party led by Carles Riera would no longer hold the key to the pro-independence majority, as ERC could form an alliance with either JxCat or the PSC. The CUP would overtake the Comuns, led by Jessica Albiach, which would fall from 8 to 7 seats, but the latter party might have a role in a left-wing pact in which ERC joined with PSC.
The PP would rise modestly from 4 to 6 deputies, but its growth would be restrained by Vox, bursting into the Catalan Parliament with 5 deputies. Finally, the Partit Nacionalista de Catalunya (PNC), the new party articulated by the former general coordinator of the PDeCat, Marta Pascal, would win no seats.
Pro-independence votes exceed 50%
Significantly, the Feedback poll shows that the sum of votes for the Independence parties - ERC (27.38%), JxCat (17.84%) and the CUP (6.22%) - would for the first time clearly exceed 50% of the votes in a Catalan election, with 51.44% of the total. If we add the 0.78% for the PNC - a party that backs independence despite refusing to reach it by unilateral means - the bloc reaches 52.22%.
The sum of seats for the Independence parties in the new Parliament would also be the most they have ever achieved, with 77-78 representatives. In the 2017 elections, the sum of JxCat, ERC and the CUP won 70; and in 2015 (with JxSí + CUP), a total of 72.
Conversely, the parties that supported the use of Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution in 2017 are losing support: from 57 seats in 2017 (Cs + PSC + PP) they now fall to 49-52 (PSC + Cs + PP + Vox).
Possible government pacts
ERC would have to make a deal with someone to gain the presidency of Catalonia - the absolute majority it needs is 68 seats. But the party could choose between a pact with JxCat - as before, but with ERC now leading the government - or with the Catalan Socialists.
The CUP would not be needed to invest a pro-independence president, but a broad pact of the parties favouring Catalan independence could reach 77-78 deputies in the new Parliament. On the other hand, a left-wing pact of ERC-PSC-En Comú Podem would reach 74-77 seats.
When voters were asked what sort of government pact they would prefer for the next Catalan government (pie graph above), the results were fragmented: the most popular option was a left-wing pact led by the PSC, with 22.8%, and in second place, a left-wing grouping led by ERC, with 20.5%.
On the independence side, 13.4% opted for a pact of pro-independence parties led by JxCat and 9.0% for leadership by ERC. But the highest percentage of respondents, 27.8%, clearly including a sizable proportion of indepe voters, don't subscribe to any of these formulas.