According to official CIS polling data published today, Pedro Sánchez is set to win the repeat Spanish general election on 10th November with 34.2% voting intention, having got 28.68% of the vote in the April. This growth appears to be at the expense of Cs and Unidas Podemos, who are both down on April.
For PSOE, however, this is a drop of seven points from their results in the last CIS (Centre for Sociological Research) survey, published in July. This appears part of a more general downward trend for left-wing parties, whilst the right gains strength.
PP is second in today's results with 17.1%, up 4 points from July and roughly what they got in April's election. Ciudadanos are on 12.9% of direct voting intention this month, just ahead of Unidas Podemos on 12.2%. A notable change with respect to July is far-right party Vox growing from 4.6% to 7.5%, although that's still short of the 10.26% of the vote they got in April.
The survey was conducted during the first two weeks of this month whilst PSOE and Unidas Podemos were failing to negotiate an agreement to form a government. As such, it doesn't include the newly-announced Más País candidacy of Íñigo Errejón, formerly of Podemos.
The election in Catalonia
As for the results in Catalonia, PSC (the local affiliate of PSOE) and ERC are neck-and-neck for the victory, on 21.3% and 20.5% of direct voting intention respectively. That would flip the order from April, when ERC won a Spanish election in Catalonia for the first time. On the other hand, it puts them closer than they were in July, when CIS had PSOE on 24.7% and ERC on 22.9%.
In third place in Catalonia, En Comú-Podem sees an notable boost, going from 11.6% in July's survey to 15.0% today. Junts per Catalunya is also up on July on 9.8%, but still short of its 12.05% in April. Making up the tail are Ciutadans on 5.1%, PP on 3.5% and Vox on 1.6%.