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If held today, pro-independence ERC would win a Catalan Parliament election with 40-43 seats. Cs would come second on 28-29, down from their current 36, and JxCat would get 22-24. This would see ERC gaining about 10 seats on their current total, and JxCat losing about the same number. In total, the independence movement would keep or even increase its majority: it has 70 seats now, it would get between 70 and 75.

This is according to the first political opinion survey of the year (see Annex 2) from the Catalan government's Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (Centre for Opinion Studies). PSC, they find, could even catch up to JxCat, ending up with 21-23 deputies. Among the other parties, En Comú would win 8 seats, CUP, 8 as well, and PP, 3-4.

According to these results, far-right party Vox, which has been growing fast elsewhere in Spain, wouldn't get any seats in the Catalan Parliament. Turnout would be 70%.