If there were to be a new election to the Catalan Parliament, pro-independence parties ERC, JxCat and CUP would between them pass the benchmark of 50% vote share, reaching 51.7%. Specifically, Junqueras's party would win clearly, getting 38-39 deputies, followed by JxCat on 29-31 and PSC on 24-25, relegating Cs to fourth place.
Figures published this Friday by the Catalan government's Centre for Opinion Studies show growth by the pro-independence bloc over their last survey which included a vote share estimate. That time it also gave the victory to ERC, on 38-40 seats, but the three pro-independence parties together only totalled a maximum of 74 seats. Now, in the best-case scenario, they would reach 80. In any case, that's easily past the 68 needed for an absolute majority. The growth in the last six months has been to the benefit of JxCat and CUP. The results suggest the latter party could equal their best showing ever when David Fernàndez won 10 seats.
Cs, who were the largest party in the last Catalan election in 2017, mirror their collapse in Madrid falling to fourth position. They could end up with less than a third of their current number of seats, going from 36 to a maximum of 16. On the other hand, for the first time the survey suggest far-right party Vox has a chance of entering the chamber in Barcelona, giving them 0-2 seats. PP meanwhile remain in a bad way in Catalonia, the prediction being they won't move from their current 4 seats.
The fieldwork for the survey started just after the Spanish general election on 10th November and finished at the start of this month.