The Catalan pro-independence parties (JxCat, ERC and CUP) would retain their absolute majority in the Parliament in the case of new elections. Between them they would get between 70 and 75 deputies, greater than the 68 necessary for an absolute majority. They currently have 70. Nonetheless, Ciutadans (Cs), led by Inés Arrimadas, would be the largest party again, with Carles Puigdemont's JxCat and Oriol Junqueras's ERC close behind.
According to the latest barometer from the Catalan CEO (Centre of Opinion Studies), the strong momentum of the pro-independence movement would be thanks to the growth of CUP, who would jump from four to eleven seats, their best results ever. On the other hand, Junts per Catalunya (JxCat) and Esquerra Republicana (ERC) would drop slightly, from 34 to 30-32 and 32 to 29-32 deputies respectively. Between the two parties, in any case, the technical draw remains: whilst Puigdemont's candidacy would again beat Junqueras's in number of seats, estimated vote would be the other way round, with ERC on 20.5% to JxCat's 19.8%.
As for the pro-union side, Cs would lose strength, falling from the 36 deputies they won on 21th December last year to 33 or 34. Arrimadas would, however, still also win in vote share. The worst forecasts are for PSC and PP: the first would get 13-15 deputies, the party's worst result ever in a Catalan election. PP, in government in Madrid, meanwhile, would drop another seat to 3.
The results are based on a survey of 1,500 Catalans carried out from 7th to 27th April, coinciding with the negotiations to invest a new president between JxCat, ERC and CUP.
Why the growth for CUP?
CUP is the party that would see the greatest positive change with respect to the last election: they would practically triple their results, going from four to eleven seats. Why? The loss in votes from the other pro-independence parties, JxCat and ERC: 7.1% of voters for the former, 6.2% of those for the latter would now switch allegiance to CUP. At the same time, 3% of voters for Catalunya en Comú-Podem, would now switch to the party.
It is also the party which retains the most support from December. 81.6% of those who voted for them last time would do so again, whilst JxCat and ERC don't keep as much support: 69.3% and 79.4% respectively.