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Catalan pro-independence parties ERC and PDeCAT would see important gains in a Spanish general election but would remain behind En Comú Podem, opposed to both independence and central government intervention in Catalonia. A poll published this Monday by Spanish public research institute CIS (Centre for Sociological Research), the first since the 21st December Catalan election and the application of article 155 of the Constitution, suggests the ERC would go from 2.7% to 3.4% of the Spain-wide vote, ahead of PDeCAT on 2%, four tenths of a point more than the last survey in November.

Pro-independence vote over time (L-R: 2016 election, November 2017 survey, current survey)

Despite the results not including a breakdown by autonomous communities, it does include vote forecasts for the pro-independence Catalan parties and En Comú Podem, which appears separately from Unidos Podemos, one of the parties in the coalition. It shows that both ERC and PDeCAT have been boosted since the intervention in the Catalan institutions and the election. The two parties would get 5.4% of the total vote in Spain, higher than their 4.3% in the previous survey and the 4.6% they got in the 2016 election. In fact, according to CIS, pro-independence parties would today get 14.8% more votes than in 2016.

For their part, En Comú Podem would also improve their results and would come ahead of either of the pro-independence parties with 3.7% of the vote (0.2 more than in the last survey or the 2016 election). The results of PP, PSOE or Ciudadanos in Catalonia remain unknown as they stand in all the autonomous communities and CIS has only published a single total for each.

At the same time, whilst pro-independence parties advance, the Catalan independence movement falls as a worry for Spaniards with respect to the previous survey, coming fourth, worrying 14.9% of respondents, behind unemployment (35.1%), politicians (24.3%) and economic problems (23%)

Concern due to Catalan independence over time (January 2017 to present)

Ciudadanos gain ground

In Spain as a whole, growth is notable for Ciudadanos. Albert Rivera's party would get 20.7% of votes, drawing close to the traditional largest parties, PP and PSOE, who would get 26.3% and 23.1% respectively. Fourth would be Unidos Podemos, not helped by their good results in Catalonia.

If an election were held today, the two-party system would remain, therefore, in the lead. But Ciudadanos would notice the effects of their victory in the Catalan election - 3.2 points more than in the last survey.