The proxy vote the Supreme Court has called for for the imprisoned deputies-elect would bring to 65 the votes the pro-independence side would have in the constitutive session of the new Parliament next Wednesday. With that many, they are drawing with the other groups, ie: the pro-union parties plus the neutral Catalunya En Comú-Podem. They would, however, be guaranteed to have their candidate become speaker, as Xavier Domènech's En Comú group has made it clear that they will not vote for Ciutadans' candidate. Even if all the opposition parties were willing to vote for En Comu's own candidate to avoid the election of an independence supporter, this should lead to a draw. In such cases of repeated draws, the chamber's rules set out that the candidate of the party with the most deputies is chosen. Between ERC's pro-independence candidate and En Comú's, that would be ERC's. This result would guarantee the majority of the Parliament's Board for the independence movement.
Of the 70 deputies that, together, pro-independence JuntsXCat, ERC and CUP won on 21st December, three are in prison (vice-president Oriol Junqueras, minister Joaquim Forn and former Catalan National Assembly president Jordi Sànchez) and five are in exile (the president, Carles Puigdemont, and ministers Clara Ponsatí, Lluís Puig, Meritxell Serret and Toni Comín). Supreme Court judge Pablo Llarena has refused Junqueras permission to leave prison to attend the Parliament debate, but made it clear that despite the "legal inability" of the three to take part in parliamentary life in the normal way, they should be allowed to delegate their votes.
The rules state that, in case of a draw voting for the Board, the vote is repeated. If, after four rounds, the draw continues, the candidate of the parliamentary group with the most deputies is chosen. If En Comú maintain their commitment to not vote for Ciutadans, no other opposition group will have enough deputies to beat ERC.
As such, Ciutadans' candidate for speaker, José María Espejo Saavedra, does not have enough votes to win and En Comú's candidate, Joan Josep Nuet, has enough votes to draw, but doesn't have enough deputies to win.
Ciutadans will, however, win in the following vote, for the deputy speaker, if they can count on support from En Comú. The two deputy speakers are voted for together; the one who gets the most votes is first deputy, the other, the second deputy. If the independence side draws with the combined opposition, Ciutadans' candidate would win as the group with most seats. This would give them the first deputy speaker role and JuntsXCat, the second.
The four secretaries are also voted for in a single round. The first secretary would go to Ciutadans, the second to JuntsXCat, the third to ERC and the fourth to PSC.
All this, of course, on the understanding that the Board accepts the Supreme Court's suggestion and allows the three imprisoned deputies to delegate their votes. On Tuesday the Board of the Parliament's Standing Committee will meet, but it's possible that the decision about delegating the vote will end up in the hands of the new temporary Board after the Parliament is officially opened, so on Wednesday. That "Board of age" will comprise the oldest deputies of the Parliament as speaker and the youngest two members as deputy speakers. All three will be ERC deputies (in Catalan).