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ERC would easily win a new election to the Catalan Parliament, building on its current 32 seats to win between 36 and 38, according to the latest results from the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO). This would push Ciutadans into second place with a fall of 6-7 seats in comparison to last December's election, to 29-30. The third set of polling data for the year from CEO shows the independence movement would strengthen its position in the chamber. CUP would shoot up 6 or 7 seats from their current 4. The only pro-independence party to fall would be JxCat, dropping 9 or 10 seats to 23-24.

On the subject of that sharp drop seen by JxCat, CEO's director, Jordi Argelaguet, suggested that the candidacy put together by president Carles Puigdemont for last year's election was "very ad hoc" and came in very specific circumstances with a specific message. As such, almost a year later, those who voted for the party have returned to ERC and CUP.

As for the other parties, PSC would see a slight increase in vote share, ending up with 17 deputies again, or possibly one more and Catalunya en Comú-Podem could gain 4 or 5 seats for 12-13 in total. Finally, PP are faced by the trickiest situation. The current largest party in the Spanish Congress would have only 2-3 seats in Catalonia and, with 3.3% vote share, would just meet the 3% threshold required to have any seats at all.



Speaking of the Congress, ERC would win there to with 14-15 deputies, up from their current 9. En Comú-Podem would lose their first place in Catalonia from the last general election along with up to two deputies, ending up with 10-12.

PDeCAT would lose two seats too, for 6, putting it behind PSC (7-8). It would also put it behind Ciudadanos who would win in vote share and possibly seats too, CEO predicting they would have 6-8. PP, meanwhile, falls again: 8 points in vote share and from 6 seats to 1-2.


In response to the question "do you want Catalonia to become an independent state?", 'yes' shows a slight growth to 47.2%, with no falling slightly to 43.2%.


Individual scores

The Catalan government doesn't come off well from the latest results, being given an average score of 3.72 out of 10 by respondents. As for individual politicians, imprisoned Oriol Junqueras (ERC) does best with 5.97, followed by his exiled deputy, Marta Rovira, on 5.16. The others to get passing scores are Elisenda Alamany (En Comú) with 5.04 and Carles Riera (CUP) with 5.01. Exiled president Carles Puigdemont gets 4.59 whilst his successor, Quim Torra, gets 4.34. The leaders in the Catalan Parliament with the worst scores are Inés Arrimadas (Cs) on 2.19 and Xavier García Albiol (PP) on 1.47.

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