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Spain's Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) didn't come close to predicting the results of last weekend's Andalusian election. PSOE didn't get 45-47 seats as predicted, they got 33. Instead of 1, far-right party Vox got 12.

Now, they've published their November barometer, saying that PSOE would win a Spanish general election, PP would return to second place and Vox would go up 1.2 points to 2.5% in predicted vote share. The research was conducted between 1st and 11th November, so well before the Andalusian election.

This November, CIS put PSOE on 31.2% predicted vote share, 12.1 points ahead of PP (19.1%). The centre-right party, however, takes back the second place Ciudadanos had leap-frogged into in October as the latter party drops almost three points to 18.2%. Indeed, they're almost caught by Unidos Podemos on 18.0%.

The political leader to fare the best is Pedro Sánchez, although he only scores 3.9 out of 10. That puts him ahead of Alberto Garzón (Esquerra Unida) on 3.6 and Albert Rivera (Cs) on 3.5.

 

ERC would win in Catalunya

As for the Catalan parties, ERC would win with 4.8% of the vote, 0.5 points more than they were predicted in October. Behind them would come En Comú Podem (which would be included in Unidos Podemos nationally, as above) on 2.8% and PDeCAT on 0.8%, down 0.6 points from October.

 

Problems

This month, for the first time, the political class has been rated as the second most important problem facing the nation. That knocks corruption into third place on a list which remains headed by unemployment.