The renowned Pasteur Institute in Paris has conducted a study about possible scenarios due to the Omicron variant. The study concludes that most probably there will be 80% fewer severe cases when compared with the Delta variant. Nonetheless, Omicron is deemed to be 70% more contagious than Delta. The study predicts that as Omicron spreads “most Covid-19 cases” will show “mild symptoms”
Based on this assumption, the variable is Omicron’s degree of contagiousness. According to the study, if it is just slightly higher than Delta’s, in France there will be 1,7700 hospital Covid-19 related admissions every day.
By contrast, if contagiousness is moderate, there might be peaks in the number of hospital admissions in France: it is likely that there will be 2,700 hospital admissions of Covid cases a day if stringent restrictive measures are not implemented. According to the Pasteur Institute, if the French adopted social distancing measures daily hospital admissions would go down to between 1,400 and 1,900.
Finally, in a very high contagion scenario the peaks could reach 4,400 hospital admissions a day, unless stringent measures are implemented, and could even go down to 2,700 if authorities implemented the most rigorous measures.
The importance of the third vaccine
The study stresses that the third vaccine, also known as the booster jab, is essential as it is very effective. According to the Pasteur Institute, those who have had the third dose show 85% protection against Omicron and 95% against the Delta variant. As for protection against hospitalisation (for severe cases) it is 95% for both variants.
By contrast, people with two doses have a good degree of protection against the Delta variant (80%) but low against the Omicron one (55%). Nonetheless, it is high for preventing severe cases requiring hospital admission (95% for Delta and 90% for Omicron).
Scientists estimate that if 1.2 million booster doses are given every day (and not, as is the case now in France, only 800,000) hospital admissions might go down by between 9% and 17%.
According to the Pasteur Institute in January there might be many infections, but in most cases symptoms will be mild. However, it warns that this might cause widespread absence from work, which may affect the normal functioning of society.
“For the time being, the data about the severity of the Omicron variant are rather encouraging. Data from South Africa and Scotland suggest a 70-80% reduction in the risk of Omicron-related hospital admissions, as compared with Delta, whereas the data from England point to a 50-70% reduction. Nevertheless, this reduction in the hospital admission risk may be partly linked to the lower severity of Omicron when compared with the Delta variant, but also to the fact that Omicron affects more those previously infected or vaccinated, and therefore less exposed to more severe symptoms”. Taking into account this record of prior infection or vaccination in analyses so as not to overestimate the severity reduction is therefore necessary”, the study points out.