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Thursday April 16th. The coranavirus figures for Catalonia appear to have grown monstrously overnight. Indeed, the raw numbers are much bigger: the total figure for deaths from the virus in Catalonia has almost doubled, from 3,726 to a new total of 7,097; while alongside the 39,375 people confirmed today as being infected by the virus in Catalonia, there is now an enormous new category: possible but not confirmed cases, which includes 55,457 people who have symptoms and are classified by a doctor as "possible cases" but who have not been tested for Covid-19.

Rather than a sudden worsening of the epidemic in Catalonia, these figures mark the Catalan health authorities attempt to provide information with the "maximum transparency possible", especially given the obvious shortcomings that have become apparent in the data provided, for example, on the large number of deaths of elderly people in care homes which were not computed because they did not die in hospital. Moreover, the total number of cases given in official statistics is far from reality because of the lack of widespread testing, and yesterday's Spanish figures were presented with a note that what appeared as an increase in the virus's rate of spread was partially the result of increased testing

The figure of 7,097 total fatilities in Catalonia is based in particular on information obtained from funeral companies, in what is described as an "exhaustive and reliable" data gathering process. According to the new data, of the total number of dead, 3,855 died in hospitals (the only deaths that have been officially counted until now), 1,810 died in residences, 62 in social care centre and 456 at their homes. The remaining 924 cases cannot be classified due to a lack of information.

From the start of the epidemic to date, a total of 2,798 people have been admitted as serious ill to Catalan hospitals. The Catalan health ministry now also provides the current figure for those in serious condition: 1,307. As for discharges from hospital, there have been 17,297 in total.

In addition, of the total confirmed cases in Catalonia, 5,712 are healthcare professionals and 5,755 are professionals in residential homes.

The Spanish data for this Thursday continues to be calculated on the same criteria as previously, taking into account only cases which have been confirmed by testing and deaths which take place "with confirmed diagnosis" which thus excludes death occurring away from hospitals. Thus the daily death toll in Spain sits just beyond the 500 mark as it has done for most of the last week - the latest one-day toll is 551 deaths, and the official Spanish count-up says there have been 5,183 new cases in the entire state.

The curve doesn't want to move. Nor does the Spanish ministry of health seem interested in changing its accounting system for the epidemic. The authorities in the Community of Madrid have also stated that in recent days they have provided the central ministry of health with information on the number of deaths that have occurred in the region's care homes, but the Spanish government's health ministry has not made use of this information in its daily counts.

1. COVID-19 data for Catalonia and Spain

CATALONIA 15th April 2020*
Total confirmed cases 39,375
New confirmed cases in last day 2,870 (yesterday 1,308)
Total possible cases 55,457 
Total deaths 7,097 (Hospitals 3,855; Residences 1,810; Social care centres 62; At home 456; Not determined 924)
Increase in hospital deaths in last day 99 (yesterday 90) 

SPAIN 16th April 2020*
Total confirmed cases 182,816
New cases in last day 5,183 (yesterday 5,092)
Total deaths 19,130
Deaths in last day 551 (yesterday 523)

*Official Spanish figures for each day are compiled from previous night’s figures from autonomous regions

2: Daily increases in deaths and cases

CATALONIA: Daily deaths in hospitals (black), daily increases in confirmed cases (blue)

SPAIN: Daily deaths (black), daily increases in confirmed cases (blue)


3. Total confirmed cases, breakdown by active/recovered/deceased 

These two new graphs break down the total confirmed cases in Catalonia and Spain into those which are active (blue), deaths (black), and recovered (green). For the epidemic to diminish, the blue line of active cases has to fall, reducing the blue area to almost zero.



4. Total confirmed cases and deaths, logarithmic scale

Casos= Cumulative cases, Greus= number who have required intensive care, Morts=  cumulative deaths, Altes/Recuperats=  people who have recovered from Covid-19 in Catalonia. 



5. SPAIN Breakdown by Autonomous Communities

16th April data (by columns: Total cases - Total who have been in ICUs - Deaths - Recovered):

WhatsApp Image 2020 04 16 at 12.02.05

Total confirmed cases by autonomous communities.