The most atypical school year in Catalan history begins next week and health authorities are reiterating that while schools are safe, there will inevitably be contagions. According to Catalonia's public health secretary, Josep Maria Argimon, as schools return, there will be an average of one case of coronavirus for every 1,424 students up to the age of 17. For this 2020-2021 academic year, there are 1,587,395 students enrolled in Catalan infant, primary and secondary education centres.
"All the cases that manifest themselves next week will be of community origin, that is, the contagion will not have taken place at school," the secretary clarified in Thursday's appearance with Covid Unit coordinator Jacobo Mendioroz. The Catalan health department estimates that on average in Catalonia, there will be one confirmed case among every 1,424 children and young people who go to school next week, although the situation will vary from area to area. “The higher the infection rate in the community, the more likely there will be a case at the school,” Argimon explained.
Given that there are 1,587,395 Catalan students going back to school next week, one infected student in every 1,424 means that a total of a slightly more than a thousand Covid-19 cases - 1,115 to be exact - could be expected in schools throughout Catalonia. If most of these infections were the only case in their class, then, by a simple calculation, between 500 and 1,000 class groups in the whole of Catalonia could be affected.
The situation of the coronavirus in Catalonia
The rate of reproduction of the virus has declined in recent days in Catalonia. It is currently at 0.96, after being just below the critical level of 1 for the last few days. This means that, on average, an infected person will transmit the virus to less than one person, which is essential if the spread of the virus is to gradually reduce. Between 14th and 20th August, the Rt in Catalonia was 1.12.
On the other hand, a second important indicator, the EPG or outbreak risk is at 178.67, having risen since Tuesday, when it stood at 170. Nevertheless, in the second half of August it was above 200 on average in Catalonia. Regional differences are also important; for example, the EPG is at 40 in Terres de l'Ebre, while in the Metropolitan South of Barcelona, it is 237.
"It will not be a normal school year. We all know that it will be difficult, but we will get through it collectively," said Argimon, recalling that "it is everyone's responsibility to guarantee this fundamental right of children in our country." “Schools are safe places,” reiterated the public health secretary, explaining that the epidemiological surveillance unit will be in charge when a case is detected.
Hand washing and disinfection at the entrance of a school. / ACN
Will there be a second lockdown?
As for the general situation of the pandemic, doctors Mendioroz and Argimon agreed in today's press conference that the current situation is one of "tense stability." However, “we still have community transmission,” Mendioroz recalled.
Argimon noted that "if things went very badly in Catalonia, schools would be the last to close." "It would not make sense to have restaurants or shops open and to close schools," he asserted. On the other hand, Covid-19 unit coordinator Jacobo Mendioroz suggested that we should "get the idea of lockdown out of our heads". “Everything points to the likelihood that we won’t have to go into confinement again,” he explained.
Main image: Catalonia's public health secretary Josep Maria Argimon. / ACN