Catalonia will not advance to Phase 2 on Monday. The Catalan government has announced the change of plan this Thursday, after it was approved by the Procicat. The meeting of the Procicat civil protection committee came to the conclusion that, with the current data, the conditions for further easing of the second-wave Covid restrictions have not been met. It agreed that Catalonia will continue under Phase 1 measures for at least another two weeks - that is, until December 21st as a minimum.
This means, among other things, that the current weekend perimeter confinement will continue in force, meaning that you can't leave your municipality between Thursday night and Monday morning, that shopping malls will not be able to open to 30% of their capacity but will have to continue with the roller doors down. In addition, bars and restaurants will not be able to increase the currently-permitted interior space capacity of 30% to 50%, and nor will cinemas and theatres be able to jump from 50% to 70%.
The four trams or phases of the Catalan government's deescalation plan / Graphic by ElNacional.cat
The public health data for Thursday shows that the Rt virus transmission index rate is now rising steadily, having today reached 0.92 after hovering at 0.77 or 0.78 for ten days until Tuesday. That is, every 100 people that become infected then infect another 92. The Rt figure provides the benchmark stipulated in the two-month reopening plan for decisions on moving forward with the relaxation of restrictions or not. The rule is clear: if the Rt is not below 0.9, no advance can be made. Furthermore, some other statistics - which partially depend on the Rt - are also trending in the wrong direction. The outbreak risk or iEPG index is also rising again, moving from 210 yesterday to 217 today.
The sea-change in the positive trend that had been seen throughout the month of November - since the beginning of Catalonia's period of second-wave confinement - took place on Tuesday. The Covid transmission index rose for the first time in weeks, by six decimal points, to 0.84. The next day it jumped up again, by five points, to reach 0.89, at the upper limit of the zone which would still allow Catalonia to move to Phase 2. But this Thursday, more cold water has been poured on the earlier optimism, as the Rt has breached the 0.9 barrier.
The Catalan health department had been postponing the final decision on the change of phase, to see if this rise, which can be related to the reopening of bars and restaurants on Monday, November 23rd, would peter out. This has not been the case and the executive has been forced to reapply the brakes. The announcement comes the day after it presented the specific Christmas plan, according to which the curfew on Christmas and New Year's Eve is put back until 1:30am and gathering size permitted is enlarged to 10 people. The government reiterated that its Christmas plan is not at risk.
When will Catalonia now move to Phase 2?
As the Catalan government itself explains, the phase of the reopening plan to be applied at any time is reassessed every two weeks. According to that roadmap, Phase 2 was to have begun on Monday 7th, in the middle of a weekend which for some will last four days, due to Tuesday's Puríssima holiday.
However, as the executive has indicated, the phase change is only permitted with an Rt below 0.9 and with weekly hospitalizations showing a downward trend. If the transmission ranges from 0.9 to 1, as is the case, it's time to put the brakes on. And if the Rt exceeds 1, the Phase actually has to take a step backwards, which would mean, at least, a return to the closures of earlier this autumn.