Pro-independence parties would retain their absolute majority if there were a new election to the Catalan Parliament, according to the latest poll from Catalonia's CEO (Centre for Opinion Studies). In fact, they could gain seats: they would go from their current 70 seats to a range of 69 to 74 deputies. Their victory would come thanks to a growth of the left-wing pro-independence parties, ERC and CUP, compensating for a JxCat fall, which would unexpectedly leave them behind ERC.
Vice-president Oriol Junqueras and ERC would gain weight in the struggle between the pro-independence parties: they would go from 32 to between 33 and 35 seats, which could leave them within touching distance of overall victory. ERC would share first place with anti-independence Ciutadans (33-35), who would lose between one and three seats. This would push JxCat into third place (29-31 seats), far from the 34 they obtained on 21st December last year. All of this would come with a sharp fall in turnout to 68%.
The most surprising growth is by CUP, who would now get between 7 and 8 seats, double their current number of deputies, approaching their best ever result: the 10 seats won in 2015. Ahead of them would come PSC (15-16 seats) and En Comú-Podem, who would get 8 seats as in last year's election. In last place again, with a result possibly even worse than last time, would be Xavier García Albiol's PP (3-4).
As such, the Catalan chamber would still have a pro-independence majority, the parties totalling between 69 and 74 seats of the 135 up for grabs. The anti-independence bloc would be down on 51 to 56 seats, leaving 8 for Catalunya en Comú-Podem, in between the two.