In all likelihood, the upcoming verdicts and sentences in the trial of Catalan pro-independence leaders following the 2017 referendum will cause a political and social earthquake, however they come down. As such, the decision of when to announce them takes on great importance.
Those in charge of this decision are those writing the sentences, namely the judges of the second chamber of Spain's Supreme Court, in particular presiding judge Manuel Marchena. Everything suggests that the sentences are being finalised during this August and media rumour suggests they'll be harsh, with long prison sentences for all those on trial.
When to announce them?
The question of when to announce the sentences is made more difficult by the calendar already being packed, politically speaking. It's believed that doing so around the 11th September Diada (Catalan national day), or the anniversary of the referendum on 1st October would be to fan the flames of a backlash from pro-independence supporters.
Between those dates is the 23rd September. That day's important because if no candidate has successful been invested as Spanish prime minister then, a new general election will automatically be called for November.
In this context, El Confidencial Digital has today reported that Marchena could be considering going ahead and even releasing it this month. The news website, which mentions legal sources, suggests that the process of writing the sentences is much further along than expected, giving them the option of an early publication if they so wish.
According to the report, the idea behind moving the release forwards would be to "avoid mobilisations", suggesting tough sentences are coming. The judges are apparently hoping to count on the "surprise factor" to catch the Catalan public off guard, perhaps even still on holiday, rather than ready to respond.