The BBC has today published a report analysing the potential economic impact of Catalan independence. They start by noting that it has the "highest GDP of any of Spain's regions, with an economy about the size of Denmark's" before talking with various experts, both for and against independence.
"Many economists - whether for or against independence - agree that an independent Catalonia could have a bright future once its ructions with Madrid and the EU were resolved," they write.
The broadcaster has interviewed the economist Santiago Niño-Becerra, one of those who supports this idea: "Transitions always are bad, but in the long term and medium term the balance of earnings and expenditure will be profitable in Catalonia". "There are around 300 academic studies that demonstrate that an independent Catalonia would be successful and only 10 that say it wouldn't", they quote Niño-Becerra, who they note is pro-independence, as saying.
The economist says that "the first problem [for an independent Catalonia] will be determining the amount of Spanish national debt that belongs to Catalonia". "In my view, Catalonia should not have to take any of the debt because it has paid so much already," he argues.
The BBC makes clear that any speculation is hypothetical for now and that "many commentators argue Madrid would never allow Catalonia to break free, let alone hold a vote on independence". Becerra suggests, however, that independence could be gradual, in stages, "until it doesn't make sense to be part of Spain anymore".
They also speak with a pro-union economist. According to Angel Tavalera of Oxford Economics, the transition would be "relatively painless" if following a referendum agreed between Spain and Catalonia, but that this option is "extremely unlikely to happen".
In the case of unilateral independence, Talavera says Catalonia would leave the EU and have to trade on World Trade Organisation terms with the Union and with Spain, "by far its two biggest trade partners". According to the economist, foreign investment would fall, businesses would relocate their headquarters, Madrid could cut Catalonia's credit line and block her from rejoining the EU.
The BBC reports that there have been "warnings that the uncertainty over independence is hurting the tourism industry and property market". "That said", they continue, "the region continues to attract foreign direct investment from big firms such as Amazon and Uniqlo". And they note it was chosen best Southern European region for foreign investment for 2018 and 2019 by fDi Magazine, owned by the Financial Times.
The broadcaster also adds that any "short-term pain of secession [is] a price worth paying to be free from Madrid's clutches".