Indeed, July 23rd was not the night which ended Pedro Sánchez's political career either. Paradoxically, he is in a position to end that of his political adversaries. Demonstrating uncommon resilience, although he lost the elections, one could say he experienced a sweet defeat. The pro-PP's 170 MPs, PP (136), Vox (33) and the single Navarrese People's Union's (UPN) MP, do not reach the absolute majority of 176 MPs. That would only be possible under circumstances that will not occur, such as adding the 6 that the Canarian Coalition (1) and the Basque Nationalist Party (5) have, or, even more unlikely, with the support of the pro-independence parties. Nor are the circumstances right for Sánchez to be invested, as he would have to add the 14 pro-independence MPs, something that, at least in Junt's case, seems impossible.
We are, therefore, heading towards an electoral deadlock that will probably lead to new elections at the end of the year. It is likely that we will even see the PSOE forcing this scenario, since, faced with a new date with the ballot box, it will show that it prefers to hold elections again than to depend on the pro-independence movement. It is quite possible that Sánchez has everything to win with a repeat election and, on the other hand, Feijóo only has everything to lose. The Spanish prime minister simply needed to come out alive this Sunday and put all the pressure on the PP's leader, and he achieved both. Pedro Sánchez, who is a survivor and a daredevil, did not make a mistake by bringing forward the elections and can look to the future with a certain peace of mind. We will see from now on how the Madrid press puts Feijóo to the sword, while Isabel Díaz Ayuso rubs her hands.
Looking at Spain's map, one can see the importance of the results in Catalonia: the 19 seats won by the Catalan socialists (PSC), winning in all four Catalan constituencies, are 13 more than those won by the PP. With this gap in seats, the Socialists have shown that they are not currently being challenged by any party in Catalonia. The fact that ERC and Junts have only won 14 parliamentary seats between them is an example of this. In terms of votes, the Socialists have won over 1.2 million, Esquerra less than 470,000, and Junts less than 400,000. Compared to the last municipal elections, Junts lost over 150,000 votes and obtained its worst result in a Spanish election. It just so happens —that it was foreseen does not make it less important— that the most important setback occurred in the areas where it achieved important victories in the last municipal elections —Barcelona, Igualada, Sant Cugat, to cite three examples—.
In any case, the fact that Esquerra and Junts are the fourth and fifth-largest parties in Catalonia in terms of votes, behind the PSC, Sumar and even the PP, reflects the scale of what has happened. Both parties have a lot of homework ahead of them, as does the CUP, which was left out of Congress. In the battle for pro-independence hegemony, they are beginning to be left with only the remains of the cake, since most of it will end up being eaten by the socialists. And they will have to analyse this circumstance in greater depth than they did on this election night, when both have devoted themselves to avoiding the issue. Both have serious homework to do because having blocking power is important if you are a top player, but it can end up being a problem if you don't know what you are going to do in the game.
In short, only Pedro Sánchez and Salvador Illa can go to sleep more or less peacefully. So can Basque Country United (EH Bildu), which has overtaken the PNV in seats, 6 to 5. The rest of the parties have a difficult summer ahead of them, because if they are unable to correct the situation, if elections are repeated, they will find themselves back in the same or worse situation than now. The pro-independence voters cannot give ERC and Junts any clearer signals of what they want them to do, should they intend to count on their vote again.