Let's make two initial points: I cannot think of any better instrument for carrying out political activity than the government of your country and, therefore, it is difficult for me to understand the decision of Together for Catalonia (Junts) to break up the Catalan government when only a year and a half of the legislature has passed. The Christian Democrat politician Giulio Andreotti, seven times Italian prime minister over different intervals between 1972 and 1992, said that power wears down only those who do not possess it. The phrase is from last century, but I don't see what has changed to make it any different in this one.
Secondly, president Pere Aragonès is a legitimate president and those who affirm otherwise are wrong. Parliament is the only democratic institution that grants or takes away legitimacy, not statements to the media, not tweets, nor any other message on social media. Catalonia's Statute of Autonomy and the rules of its Parliament establish the holding of elections or the passing of a no-confidence motion as the only instruments that can strip the president of the authority he has had since his investiture. Deviating from this framework does not help to strengthen the institutions.
Having issued this preamble, which I consider necessary, it is also true that, from now on, the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) cannot bury its head in the sand. Since before the summer, when the speculation began that Xavier Trias might be the Junts candidate for the Barcelona mayoralty, ERC has been trying insistently to force the departure of its partners from the government, and Junts ended up taking the bait. What is simply untenable is for Aragonès to, firstly, expel them from the executive - the way he negotiated the crisis did not help to hold the coalition government together and everyone knows it - and that once they are out of his hair, to expect them to be as gentle as lambs in opposition, passing legislative projects as if nothing had happened.
This will not happen and Aragonès must now look further afield for the fresh air he needs to avoid the call for elections becoming asphyxiating in the coming months. He will have no option but to reach agreement with the Catalan Socialists (PSC), because the arithmetic does not allow any other handling of the current parliamentary minority in this 33-deputy government and he is a long way short of the absolute majority of 68 parliamentarians. Let's be clear: the only variable geometry currently possible is with the PSC. The alternative-left Comuns can be used as a crutch, as they have been until now, but nothing more. And the relations between ERC and the radical left, pro-independence CUP do not allow us to think about major accords, because it was the first party that distanced itself from Aragonès and with whom it breached its deal to submit to a confidence motion at the mid-point of the legislature.
The Socialist leader Salvador Illa is, therefore, already on the dance floor waiting and knowing that the government break-up leaves him as the only possible partner, with all his moves yet to be demonstrated: from lending a helping hand, to walking away. He knows that his actions must not be drastic or precipitated, he has already reached out to offer his smothering embrace and all he must do is wait to reap the rewards. It is ERC that has to decide things, such as, for example, whether to extend the existing government budget with all the difficulties that that will mean in a year with municipal elections coming in May, or else to hand the flag of political stability in Catalonia to the PSC. Surely, ERC has not come this far in its public distancing from the PSC - not, obviously, from the PSOE in Madrid - to now take a step back.
The first preview of this new and complex political situation will take place next Wednesday when Aragonès will appear to give an explanation of the Government's reshuffle. It will be a small taste, of a little more than an hour, but it will certainly give some idea of the political course that awaits in the months ahead.