It did not go unnoticed that last Sunday's political event held by the Spanish Socialists (PSOE) at Ifema, Madrid's exhibition centre, took place amidst a profusion of Spanish flags. They did not appear by chance, but were distributed generously at the entrance by the organizers of the event, in contrast with the reality of recent times at meetings held by Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE. It is obvious that the People's Party (PP) has pushed into the Socialist space, for part of its more conservative electorate, with its opposition to the amnesty law and accusations of selling out to the pro-independence parties and betraying Spain. In addition, Socialist voters have found themselves having to decide a direction: between the route of the old PSOE, with its historical references figures, Felipe González and Alfonso Guerra, campaigning against the amnesty, and that of the current party, with Pedro Sánchez at the head, who unanimously support the decision of the general secretary.
This Monday, in addition, to make their choice clear, the party's strategists have incorporated Spain's national flag into the poster that has appeared in most photos of the headquarters where the executive committee meets. Thus, this Monday, the motto Siempre Adelante - "Always Forward" - which appeared on the banner located just behind the position of the party presidency, has been replaced by España Avanza, "Spain Advances", with the rojigualda flag attached to the letter A. A subtle change and a response to the accusations received. It is obvious that the amnesty has had an erosive effect on the PSOE and that in its passage through parliament, which will be long, it will continue to make the feathers fly. The polls that are appearing show this, and it is of little use to note that the leaders themselves have been the main source of the disagreement with part of the grass roots, since they made a promise and now, due to post-electoral needs, they have had to turn the boat around without any pause in the journey.
"The PSOE is concerned, in the short term, about three upcoming elections"
The PSOE is concerned, in the short term, about three upcoming elections: the European elections, and then the Basque and Galician autonomous elections. The most delicate will undoubtedly be the parliamentary elections for Strasbourg and Brussels, which will be held at the beginning of June. In the last ones, in 2019, the PSOE took more than ten points and eight seats off the People's Party, as the Socialists reached 21 parliamentarians, while the PP did not exceed 13. These numbers will not be repeated this time even with the best of luck and the only doubt is by how many points Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party will prevail. In addition, you don't have to be an expert analyst to know that the PP will try to turn these elections into a kind of plebiscite on the amnesty law, which will not yet be approved at that point, since the party has designed a campaign to slow it down that will destroy the forecasts that were made.
Surely, the Basque elections will be held before then, despite the fact that the legislature does not expire until the end of July. In these elections, traditionally, the PSOE and PP have little at stake because it is the Euskadi parties, the PNV and EH Bildu, who risk the most. The former, no doubt frightened by its most recent election results, hastily retired Iñigo Urkullu and placed Imanol Pradales, of the province of Biscay, in the spotlight - quite a surprise, although very much in line with the house style, making it clear that between the two heads of Basque politics, it is the party that always comes first. Bildu is also in the process of change and this Monday it was made public that, definitively, Arnaldo Otegi will not be a candidate and that a rejuvenation process at the head of the organization is opening. The PSOE and the PP will face each other for the third and fourth positions, both with possibilities to improve.
In Galicia, Sánchez has more options, since with the departure of Feijóo, Alfonso Rueda, a candidate with a lesser reputation, has been left in charge. We will see how the Galician PP plays its cards and when it calls voters to the polls, because the term ends at the same time as in the Basque Country, since both autonomous elections tend to overlap. If Feijóo were to lose the government in his own land and fail to get an absolute majority, a serious problem would open up for him. On the contrary, if he achieves it, he will surely have a good base in Madrid to tackle an assault on the Moncloa palace when the time comes.