After an election, the most interesting thing is always to tally up the victims. Those who have been really hurt by the result of Sunday's election in the Galician autonomous community. By far the most damaged of all of them is Pedro Sánchez, since, although it was taken for granted that the Galician Socialists (PSdeG) would suffer an electoral setback, the blow struck went well beyond the most pessimistic analyses, since the results breached their historical minimum levels, with a poor 14% and only 9 deputies out of a possible 75. There are cities, such as Vigo, where they fell from 61% in the municipal elections last May with Abel Caballero to 20% on Sunday: the Socialists lost more than 41 percentage points in just nine months. What really sunk Pedro Sánchez was the devilish combination of the absolute majority for the People's Party (PP) - with two more seats than it needed - and the defeat of the PSdeG.
Because, in the end, Sánchez made a mistake in strategy (fighting the election on Spanish national lines was a bad business), in tactics (gambling everything on the Galician Nationalist Bloc's ability to boost the left) and in the materialization of his hyper-leadership (very much within the party, not at all with his government coalition). Because in Galicia, his main coalition partner also collapsed dramatically, since Sumar did not reach 2%, a ridiculous figure despite the fact that the party mobilized second deputy prime minister Yolanda Díaz - herself a Galician - and four ministers. The Sumar phenomenon is in agony and the deputy PM seems to be subtracting more than she adds. This must be also be seen as part of the Sánchez strategy that saw in Díaz a replacement for the left-wing lines of Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias and who has instead found an inconsistent leader with much more political facade than substance.
If Sánchez has one quality, it is the speed with which he can extricate himself from a tight spot, and indeed, he already pulled such a trick on May 28th after his resounding defeat in the municipal elections, calling a Spanish general election the very next day. And the prime minister learnt two things on Sunday night: the amnesty law must be passed one way or another, since, if not, his legislature evaporates, and, secondly, the threats by Junts to precipitate general elections in July are today a dead letter. It would be like handing over the keys to the Moncloa palace directly to the PP. So, given his past moves, you would have to think that he has already set in motion the machinery to reach a quick amnesty deal. And if it can be done, without exhausting the two-week extension that the PSOE has requested, even better. He needs José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and Santos Cerdán to give him a rapid victory.
If Sánchez has come out badly damaged, Díaz questioned and Díaz Ayuso shaken, Abascal will have difficulty being seen amidst the rubble of Vox
The other two losers from Galicia are the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal. The first suffered a setback that the money she invests in media will succeed in concealing. Feijóo's level-headedness will serve to avoid bloodshed, but the Galician has challenged her and it has turned out well for him. And he will not easily forget the months that have passed and those that turned their back on him in the PP. The great unknown is whether Feijóo can lead his party towards more moderate positions or if the Aznar sector will not allow it. The PP will not have enough just by swallowing up Vox, which will eventually happen; rather, it needs to build bridges with peripheral parties that it does not have now and the party has given very few signs of opening itself up to make that possible.
If Sánchez has come out badly damaged, Díaz questioned and Díaz Ayuso shaken, Abascal will have difficulty being seen amidst the rubble of Vox. The far-right party has confirmed that it has begun its decline and that Abascal is the ideal person to return it to irrelevance. Good news, because the current leader of Vox will remain in charge no matter what and the times ahead will gradually place him further and further outside the game board.