The first deaths of the Ukrainian war in Poland, after two missiles exploded there, led, for a few hours, to a situation of panic all over the world - and especially in Europe. Were we facing an uncontrollable situation for the first time, with Russia having pressed a button that would be difficult to deactivate? Poland had already convened its National Security Council and activated military units, and was also considering invoking Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which provides for the calling of a meeting of members of the organization after any state's territorial integrity, independence or security is threatened. An escalation was underway on Tuesday evening and, luckily, by Wednesday morning the uncertainties about the missile's authorship had given way to a much more manageable scenario, because it was almost certainly a human error by Ukrainian troops and left Moscow out of the focus of responsibility.
But the incident reminded us of something that we know can happen at any time, and the fact that it isn't given the necessary attention doesn't make it go away. The war in Ukraine and the invasion ordered by Putin, which will soon enter its tenth month, is a powder keg that, at any moment, could get out of control due to a Russian military decision or a mistake by its army. For those hours this week we saw it, and we also saw how television networks around the world interrupted their broadcasts because of what could happen. The analyses that were made were not very different and although all were reluctant to inflame the atmosphere, the risk appeared of a conflict on the largest scale. Dangerously hidden around the corner.
The G-20 summit meeting in Bali, with US president Joe Biden taking the lead, allowed Western leaders to focus jointly on what was happening in Poland, to unify their messages and talk about their work together in pursuit of peace. That's all very well, but nothing seems to be going in that direction. There are no diplomatic moves to stop the war; the initial attempts have disappeared, at least publicly, and we are simply facing a conventional war between two armies, with the different media giving us news of the Ukrainian cities that first fall into Russian hands and then are in some cases liberated by the Ukrainian army, now reinforced by military material provided by a range of Western countries. These war reports do offer us a real-time situation that allows us to see that Russia is facing a difficult juncture, with some major losses of position, a fact that undoubtedly has a devastating effect in Moscow.
But this does not bring us any closer to the end of the conflict and, with the arrival of winter, Western fears do nothing but grow. First, over energy prices. But also, very significantly, due to all the collateral consequences of a situation, including rampant inflation that could only be stopped by a sizable increase in interest rates and the palpable risk of recession in many economies. This portends difficult months to come, at least until well into spring, with uncertainty converted into a fixture in any economic diagnosis of the future that one wants to make.
Perhaps the most positive note of the last few hours has been the restrained reaction of all world leaders, with messages clearly at the opposite extreme from the discourse of someone who wanted to start a conflict on the largest scale. This is the only reason, albeit a very small one, for a modicum of hope.