Pedro Sánchez was recognized as having a capacity for risk-taking that bordered on recklessness when, after losing the municipal elections last May, he knocked over the electoral chessboard and called a snap election in Spain two months later, on the 23rd July, and then - even if it was achieved by fits and starts - snatched the reins of the Spanish government from Alberto Núñez Feijóo through a broad political pact of 'everyone against the PP and Vox'. The move went well for him, or at least it seemed so until 24 hours ago, when the passing of the amnesty law by the Congress of Deputies was more of a funeral for the Socialists than a lever to guarantee the future of the legislature. So much political erosion to satisfy the independentists - Puigdemont to a greater extent than the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), since the former brought Sánchez to the brink of total humiliation - to now find that just when he throught he could breathe again he can't even present the annual Spanish state budget.
In Catalonia, president Aragonès, surfing on the non-approval of the Catalan budget, called elections for May 12th, a decision which has shattered many of the assumptions about the political conservatism of his moves and the predictability of his oscillations. Almost the antithesis of Sánchez. Perhaps for this reason, in those places where the prime minister of Spain is considered intrepid and brave, other adjectives are used with Aragonès. The truth is that early elections are hellishly dangerous, as has been seen on more than one occasion, and I know of few cases in which a snap election has been called by a leader who is behind the polls. Catalan president José Montilla, in 2010, was asked by his own Catalan Socialist (PSC) party to bring the election forward in the face of falling poll ratings; he didn't do it, hoping for a lifeline and the result only got worse. Most likely, Aragonès accepted the conclusion that Montilla rejected: without a budget, with the drought that shows no respite, with groups such as the farmers and the health sector protesting in the streets and with no good news on the horizon, holding on was not a good decision. And, what's more, all this with only 33 deputies who support him among the 135 parliamentarians in the Catalan chamber.
Aragonès reached the conclusion with no good news on the horizon, holding on was not a good decision
The first reactions of all the parties, at least in what they are saying, appear to show a certain improvisation. As if they had not taken the calling of the election very well and were more interested in filling up hours of media programming than facing the campaign before them. Thus, they all say that they will do what they haven't done, they will reach agreement where they had previously quarrelled and they will quarrel where they had earlier been in agreement. A lot of noise in these first few hours. In the Moncloa palace they assert that the PSC aspires to govern alone, which is impossible even if they get the votes of the PP. There is ERC, which prefers to reach agreement with Together for Catalonia (Junts) than with the PSC, after it had expelled them from the government by sacking their government vice-president and since then it has been the Socialists who have held the legislature together. There are also many questions about how the parties will be able to find the wavelength of an apparently demobilized Catalan electorate that will have its third election in a year and with the European elections still to come in June.
Having said all that, it is clear that the elephant in the middle of the room is Carles Puigdemont. An elephant for the Republican Left, an elephant for the PSC, an elephant for the PP and, also, an elephant for Junts. That Junts did not delay the amnesty law for two months because it was seeking electoral advantage is obvious. If it had voted 'yes' in January, when it voted no in Congress, the law would surely have been passed and promulgated for the May 12th election. Now he won't be there before the second half of June and, for that reason, president Puigdemont has indicated that he would be delighted to be there, without yet announcing his candidacy, which no one in Junts doubts. The only thing up in the air at the moment is the schedule for his return. With the possibility of coming home before the election, in the middle of the campaign, and with the consequences it would have. Electoral, political and judicial. Oddly, if such a scenario ends up happening, it would good for the PP as well, capable of scratching oput some advantage in the middle of a perfect storm.