The outlandish proposal by Together for Catalonia (Junts) asking Catalan president Pere Aragonès to submit to a confidence motion just after he had pledged from the rostrum of Parliament to fulfill his investiture agreement, without giving specifics, has certainly placed the coalition government in a very tight corner. Aragonès feels questioned and discredited by his governing partners, while his Catalan Republican Left (ERC) party and many of its ministers are pushing him to break up the government. And Junts is caught between the dialectical radicalism expressed in Parliament, in contrast with the unanimous view of its own ministers that it would be a mistake to leave the government, and obvious division within the party. Under these circumstances, a rebuilding of bonds is a very unlikely task, since the short-termist and partisan approach has for a considerable period only attempted to patch up the difficulties, not solve them.
President Aragonès has given a 48-hour period for the party led by Laura Borràs and Jordi Turull to clarify its position on its continuity or not in the government, arguing that in the current situation, the institution is only degrading itself. In such a short period, Turull does not have enough time to close a crisis of this magnitude, having announced an active and passive consultation of the party's grass roots on the continuity of Junts in the government. It is a hieroglyph in which the pieces of the puzzle and the timing are not compatible, since the first requires speed and the second needs patience. There would be a route if Junts were to specify that the confidence motion requested was not imperative, but was simply a suggestion with the intention of strengthening the government. Certainly, very convoluted, but the solutions, if you want them, are never easy.
The hypothesis of a Catalan government sustained only by the 33 ERC deputies out of the 135 members of parliament causes vertigo in some Republican sectors, but, apparently, the continuous discrediting of Aragonès has an even worse effect. The president, on the tightrope where he finds himself, would be ready to start a complicated path of variable geometry: lacking the votes of Junts, he could be ready to try other alliances, with the Catalan Socialists (PSC) - the largest political force, also having 33 MPs - and the alternative-left En Comú Podem - sixth largest party in the chamber with eight MPs - to win votes in Parliament. He also believes that in some initiatives Junts will not be able to stop voting with his party. And even the CUP. Using these means to obtain the necessary 68 votes for a majority in Parliament would not be easy, since with its eyes on the municipal elections next May, ERC would have the advantage of holding all the power in the Generalitat administration but the obstacle of depending too much on the Socialists, something that could hinder it. We only need to remember how irritated ERC president Oriol Junqueras was when the economy minister, Jaume Giró (Junts), opened the door to negotiating the annual budget with the PSC, and the campaign that ERC has waged against the pacts in the Barcelona provincial authority between PSC and Junts.
Junts's problem is something very different: which policies will it fight for from the opposition? Will the party find a way to reverse its current discourse with proposals that it has not itself made from within the government since 2017? Will it be credible in this? The fact that this whole painful spectacle takes place five years after the success of the 1st October referendum - an anniversary commemorated this Saturday - is yet another example of how everything has fallen apart: of all that hope that existed on October 1st, 2017, only the frustration and battles of 2022 remain. The two pro-independence majorities obtained in Parliament in 2017 and 2021 have not ended the disunity and confrontation and, like small children, they have preferred to knock everything down. It is, sincerely, a sad spectacle.