Politics sometimes has unforeseen outcomes, and this is one of them. After the worst result of the space occupied by Junts per Catalunya, which only got 7 deputies and obtained less than 400,000 votes, a meagre 11.16% of the votes in Sunday's general election, it has the next Spanish prime minister's appointment in its hands. Everyone recognises this, although, it is also true, no one knows what will happen with the key which the political situation has granted Carles Puigdemont's party. For several reasons: does Junts per Catalunya have any incentive to reach an agreement that would facilitate an investiture? Does the PSOE have any margin to make basic concessions to the pro-independence movement, or is it easier for them to go towards a repetition of elections? And, finally, can the People's Party (PP) and, above all, Feijóo, with his head smelling of gunpowder, gather an impossible majority counting on Vox's votes but leaving the Catalan president in exile out of any equation?
Puigdemont certainly has the key to the Spanish government in what, from Madrid, is understood to be a provocation, since for one reason or another they are unable to turn the page on what he represents, politically speaking. Perhaps that is why the Public's Prosecutor's Office took less than 24 hours to ask the Spanish Supreme Court and judge Pablo Llarena to issue an arrest warrant against MEPs Puigdemont and Toni Comín, in addition to requesting the reactivation of another European arrest warrant after noting that, according to the July 5th European General Court's ruling, both politicians in exile do not have parliamentary immunity. The judicial apparatus' tempo follows political times, and it never misses an opportunity to raise its hand and remind us it is there. That it has not forgotten, nor does not forget.
I believe that despite the existing difficulties and the scarce margin for agreements, Puigdemont will want to play the game. Waterloo is awaiting calls and, should they come, he will play. In Moncloa palace, predictably, they already know what they must do and with whom they must speak should they want to break the standstill. They also know that there will be a certain realism if negotiations take place. Pro-independence realism, obviously. Not unionist. And that the game is political, requires solving the conflict, and involves a judicial decision. This last point is pretty much insurmountable: can there be an amnesty without an amnesty? As has been seen already, moreover, judges reinterpret Spanish legislation at will and, in this regard, their distance and enmity with Sánchez is acute.
With the PP and Feijóo, who apparently have no game to play, perhaps it would be different. They are closer to the judiciary, and the pragmatism of the right to achieve power goes far beyond principles, as José María Aznar demonstrated in his day. But Vox is left over, and there is no way to take the far-right out of the equation. Feijóo is paying here for the sin of believing Vox's support and the linguistic and cultural policies would be enough to reach a majority. In politics nothing is for free and leaving the centre was not good business for Feijóo, as he can now see. We will see what Junts understands by realism, when its real situation is that it is the fifth party in Catalonia after Sunday's elections, having lost about 150,000 votes compared to the local elections held just under two months ago.
Having the key is undoubtedly important. Hence, all national and international analysts and media are talking about it. Let there be no mistake: if there is one thing Waterloo is ready for, it is to resist political and media pressure, as it has been saying "no" for many years. It already left that stage behind, under much more difficult circumstances. Sánchez said he does not want a repetition of elections. It remains to be seen whether it is a strategy or if he is serious. Because the key is of little use if it is not used for the right lock, as the door will not open. This is what makes the game yet to begin in earnest, of which a few preliminary moves have been seen, so interesting. And it is not a simple black and white easily understood matter, as Madrid would like.