The lehendakari, or Basque president, Íñigo Urkullu, officially announced this Thursday that the Basque Country elections will be held on April 21st, thus putting an end to any rumours about their celebration. Although Urkullu will not be a candidate - much to his dismay - after three terms and almost twelve years of presidency, because the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) has decided to bring in new blood before a fourth presidential term and has opted for a new candidate, Imanol Pradales, 48 years old , a typical product of the PNV factory. Despite the fact that the party seems to approach the elections with a certain advantage, these will be the most contested of any elections in Euskadi, with EH Bildu, the main left-wing party of the abertzale (Basque nationalists), extremely well positioned, and we will see how the 75 seats in contention, 25 per province, are shared out.
Although Urkullu's mandate did not end until July - the elections were on July 12th, 2020 - and he could have even extended the legislature for a few months, which he would have liked, the lehendakari has ended up bowing to the wishes of the party, which clearly wanted the vote to take place before the European parliamentary elections at the beginning of June. Once again, the uniqueness of the PNV has been demonstrated, in which it is the party that very clearly holds the reins of politics, and the president and the Basque government end up being mere executors. This was true for decades under Xabier Arzalluz, and years later the same pattern continues to be repeated with Andoni Ortuzar, current president of PNV executive organ Euzkadi Buru Batzar.
Although the PNV seems to approach the elections with a certain advantage, these will be the most contested of any elections in Euskadi
The Basque elections will find the PNV in a process of transition, since Pradales is a total novice to large-scale politics. It is obvious that the PNV trust, above all, in their party, its territorial establishment and its demonstrated discipline, to overcome this circumstance. But the Spanish general election last July introduced an unknown factor of nervousness about who would win this April's elections. For the first time, the margin between the PNV and Bildu narrowed greatly. So much so, that if the November 2019 Spanish election awarded 32.01% of votes and six seats to the PNV compared to 18.67% and four MPs to Bildu, in the same vote a few months ago these more than 13 points were reduced to a few tenths of a percent. The PNB obtained 24.0% and five seats, and Bildu 23.9% and, also, five parliamentarians in the Congress of Deputies.
Bearing in mind that in the last autonomous community elections, almost four years ago, the distance had been more than 11 points and ten seats - 31 to 21 - the question is whether a similar phenomenon of vote evolution could be repeated this April? And, secondly, could there be a landslide that would not only be electoral, but would leave the PNV without the presidency? It seems that the latter question is very remote, since the Socialists, called to be the hinge party if they do not suffer a tumble like that of Galicia, have guaranteed their votes to the moderate nationalists, even in the hypothesis that they do not finish first. But, as we know well, words are often carried away in the wind and the best thing is always to win the election if you want to avoid scares. And yet, it is true that Pedro Sánchez needs the PNV votes in Congress and he has zero margin for speculation.
However, if there were a tectonic shift on election day and Bildu rose to victory, the legislature would have a very different look with the winning party in opposition. Because what does seem clear is that the possibility of the PNV and Bildu reaching an accord does not exist, nor is it expected. Something that, looking from Catalonia, is often forgotten. They are very clear there that they are not the same, that the policies they carry out to satisfy their voters are not the same and that the electorates are, consequently, very different. Despite the fact that April 21st is still more than eight weeks away, I believe that the interest in the outcome of the Basque roulette will not disappear.