Although there have been several wars in Europe in recent years, both in Ukraine itself - in fact, it is estimated that since 2014 there have been tens of thousands of deaths in the Donbas region and the Crimean peninsula - that between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with about 7,000 dead; and if we go further back, the conflict in Georgia, it would probably be necessary to go back to the Balkan War, which caused tens of thousands of deaths, to reach the last occasion when Europeans woke up and became aware, as they did this Thursday, that they had an armed conflict in their backyard. Because the invasion of Ukraine unleashed by Russian president Vladimir Putin, which has reached Kyiv, the capital, and has taken control of the country's major cities, is, right now, nothing less than a war against the West. To begin with, with the United States and NATO, but also with the European Union, this club of well-meaning politicians who have found, once again, how armed combat is unleashed on their continent and they are mere underlings in the new cold war between the Russians and the US.
It has taken less than 24 hours for Putin to be militarily disputing the most important cities on the perimeter of Ukraine and to make it clear that he is unwilling to deviate a centimetre from the image of imperial Tsar that the West has of him. He made the move when many analysts thought he would not be capable of it, without any apparent fear of reprisals which he already knew were coming but was not deterred. Perhaps because he believes that the United States will not end up getting deeply involved in a conflict that is a bridge too far geographically, when it has other goals on its horizon more focused on the economy and with a president like Joe Biden who is apparently reluctant to embark on a military escalation at the highest level, as already seen in the hasty withdrawal of American soldiers from Afghanistan.
The first reaction from the White House offered a low profile in political terms, being limited to announcing that it will send troops to Germany to participate in the response agreed by NATO, but ruling out involving the US military in a fight against Russian troops on Ukrainian soil. Here is a first big difference: Russians may be willing to die for a part of Ukraine that they consider to be theirs and a path to rebuilding their empire, while in the European Union and the United States there is not, by a long shot, a similar feeling about a country that is more than 3,000 kilometres from Paris or London and 1,500 from Germany.
With the cards having been shown, at least those of the first hand in the game, it remains to be seen what economic sanctions are specified, the most important of which will, obviously, not have an immediate effect, and, whether, after the invasion, Putin will want to annex all or part of Ukraine, dividing the country into two: with the pro-Russian part as independent republics under the tutelage of Moscow, and the rest of Ukraine independent, as long as it is guaranteed that it will not be part of NATO. All this will be seen in the coming days, but it seems clear after the move that has been made that the combination of a security that he believed he did not have with NATO's movements in Ukraine and the wounded pride for what used to be in other times, and is no longer, have carried more weight than diplomacy, politics, dialogue and peace agreements.
Two last reflections on the European Union: with Josep Borrell as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security, it is very likely that nothing will go well for the old continent, as his capacity for dialogue and understanding with an adversary is much less than zero. Borrell is the arsonist who, far from dousing the fire, ends up making it bigger. Secondly, unfortunately, we are going to once again watch the European Union play a very small role in a conflict that is taking place on the continent. It will demonstrated, once again, that as long as Europe does not reach political unity, it will be a broken toy and that its role will be similar to that of Andorra in a conflict between Spain and France: insignificant.