Catalan voters have once again opted for complexity, with no less than seven strong themes coming out of the results of the February 14th elections: for the first time, more than 50% of votes are pro-independence, a milestone that has been pursued for several elections and has now finally been achieved; Republican Left (ERC) on 33 seats is ahead of Together for Catalonia (Junts) with 32, and with the CUP and its 9 seats again being essential in order to form a pro-independence government, which would increase its majority, totaling 74 deputies among the 135 seats in Parliament; Pere Aragonès has all the options of being the first ERC's Catalan president since the Second Republic in the 1930s; a pyrrhic victory for the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and its 33 seats which, logically, will leave the party as the major opposition group, nothing more than a repetition of what happened in 2017 with Ciudadanos (Cs); the worrying entry of Vox into the Catalan chamber with 11 seats, and placed as the fourth largest political force in its first election here; the debacle of Cs and PP with 6 and 3 seats respectively, a mere testimonial presence; and the PDeCAT remaining out of Parliament with its 75,000 votes floating away down the river, news that will cause more than a few people to tear their hair out.
From this analysis of the results, difficult days and weeks open up ahead to reach agreement on a government and it is up to the Republican Left to set the rules of the game on a political chessboard like the Catalan one, in which nothing is exactly as it seems and everything is more difficult than it seems: with whom does Pere Aragonès want to govern? What concessions is he willing to make to ensure a stable government and what will he do if his assertion during the campaign to bring Junts and En Comú Podem together do not bear fruit, as seems more than probable? And the question which may end up being the most important: what is the roadmap that opens up in Catalan politics from this point on? And finally, to do what, in the next four years?
Over the next few days we are bound to be subject to more than one threat of a repeat election if the pro-independence parties are unable to speak frankly to each other, something that has obviously not happened in the last three years. And surely a part of the abstention of their electorate must be found here, rather than in the pandemic. It's possible that many political parties will be motivated by the possibility of a repeat election after the summer. This will be seen in the coming days, when, without a doubt, we will witness those moments of tension and drama that are so typical of Catalan politics. We trust that the spectacle will be as brief as possible, that a government agreement will be reached between the pro-independence parties and that they will start working to face the Catalan conflict by looking it in the face.
The figure of fifty percent of votes in favour of independence sends an important message to the international community, as one of the demands that has been made repeatedly has now been met. There are now more Catalans who are pro-independence than those who are not, and Catalonia has once again won the right to a referendum agreed with the state. This should be the main condition, along with an amnesty law, for a possible dialogue table. Each election opens a new phase, but it is obvious that it will not be possible to wait indefinitely and waste the 50% achieved at the polls. ERC will have the biggest responsibility from now on, as it has won at the polls. The party thus acquires a political responsibility that it has never had and history gives it an opportunity to leave its mark from the highest level of the Catalan institutions and move forward with firm steps towards the Catalan republic. The post-14th February countdown has now been set in motion.