The last survey from Spain's Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO) before the holidays confirms Esquerra Republicana's preeminent position in Catalan politics. Despite its indisputable leader, Oriol Junqueras, being deprived of his liberty and its secretary general, Marta Rovira, being in exile, the Catalan electorate, according to CEO, is rewarding their pragmatic politics and their distance from any unilateral path with a disciplined and predictable internal organisation. The results of the Spanish and municipal elections are confirmed again a few months after voting in April and May. This has happened right at the moment Spanish politics has crashed on the rocks with the failed investiture of Pedro Sánchez, and Catalan politics isn't much better at the institutional level with a government with extraordinarily low ratings, starting with the president, Quim Torra who gets a poor failing mark of 4.15 out of 10, unusually low for an occupant of the government palace.
The CEO barometer makes it clear that Esquerra has done its homework well ahead of a new election, either a repeat of the general election on 10th November, or a Catalan election on the horizon with no set date but which could end up happening in 2020. The dozen deputies they take from Junts per Catalunya and PSC, who are fighting for second position, is important but not decisive. Especially since ERC and JxCat are communicating vessels and what one wins the other loses and that, without any election scheduled, there are many surveys ahead. What can be said for certain is that PSC has taken definitive control of the pro-union space and is again picking up votes from Ciudadanos, in free fall after its erratic policy of no to everything and the clear wearing down of Albert Rivera and Inés Arrimadas.
Although the pro-independence majority in the Parliament is not in danger, there are worrying signs threatening it: the fall in supporters of independence who, for the first time since June 2017, a few months before the referendum, are passed by supporters of 'no'. The famous 80% of Catalans who believe that Catalonia should have the right to hold an independence referendum falls to 70.8%, a truly high figure but ten points below what tended to come out in polls. Certainly, the rupture between the pro-independence parties, the lack of a shared plan, the permanent confrontation in any debate which affects the pro-independence movement, the inability to put together a joint response to the Supreme Court's sentences and the absence of leadership are more than sufficient as reasons to explain CEO's figures.
Likewise, the governmental vacuum existent in Catalonia should be cause for reflection. The government's downward curve over the last year is rather more than concerning: whilst in July last year it was scored a failing 4.31, now that's down to 3.60. It's failed by 55.8% and passed by 40.5% of Catalans. Zero is the most common mark (23.3% of those surveyed) and JxCat's voters award it a poor score (5.93) whilst ERC's voters are even more measured (5.01). Without a vigorous change of direction, it's frankly unlikely that Catalans will improve their opinion of their president and his executive. Otherwise, the boat can only continue to drift.