As we pass the halfway point of the Spanish general election campaign, there remain enough undecided voters to act with caution after looking over the different surveys that are being published. That between 20 and 25% of voters aren't saying who they'll vote for necessarily obliges maximum caution. In the Andalusian election and the last Catalan election, many made the decision in the hours running up to polling day.
PSOE is assuredly going to be the largest party. But how it's going to govern is the great unknown. In the first week of the campaign, its electorate has mobilised more than any other and it's had options open up to form a government with Ciudadanos and with the pro-independence movement. The pro-independence parties always have a harder time in Spanish elections. But, certainly, the press conferences from Soto del Real prison by Oriol Junqueras and Jordi Sànchez will have had an electrifying effect on their respective voters. Like the rally which Jordi Turull could take part in from prison this Saturday, and the one Josep Rull will be able join by video link this Sunday. The emotional impact of being able to listen to the political prisoners talking about the country they want after so long is not a minor matter.
Although Junqueras and Sànchez have different objectives this election (the first wants to win it in Catalonia, the second to get enough seats for their own group in the Congress), their momentum should help the independence movement to a great result, waiting to see if Fachin's Front Republicà is able to enter the Congress. The independence movement has a lot more at stake that it seems in this election as it's not the same thing for them to be essential for any party to form a government and for PSOE and Ciudadanos to join in the executive. And that's still to be decided and will depend on the result in Catalonia. In an election full of uncertainties that appears to be the only certainty.