The arrival of Pere Aragonès at the presidency of the Generalitat of Catalonia will most likely be delayed for several more weeks after the rebuff given to him by the general secretary of Together for Catalonia (Junts), Jordi Sànchez. The pressuring of Junts to agree, precipitated by the Republican Left (ERC) and Popular Unity (CUP) after their announcement on Tuesday of the details of their own pre-agreement under which the Republicans secured the votes of the far-left party, has in practice been left with nowhere to go after Sànchez explicitly stated something that had no longer been a secret in recent days: that no agreement on a government programme had been closed, insufficient confidence for a stable four-year government had been generated, and consequently, negotiations would have to continue. The 32 votes of Junts, one fewer than ERC and PSC, force the party to give up any ambition on the presidency. However, in Junts they believe that this does not reduce their margin to negotiate an agreement between equals with ERC.
Some foresaw that the courtship between Junts and ERC would be consummated very quickly, on the night of February 14th when the election results were known, with 74 out of the 135 seats and almost 52% of the vote going to the pro-independence parties. But it seems the relationship remains very unstable, with too many mutual criticisms being traded in the press and social media. Although the will of the couple is seemingly unequivocal, what seems to be lacking, in addition to expressions of goodwill, is an immediate verbal de-escalation. Catalan politics is well accustomed to last minute script changes, but it is hard to see that this Friday's (first) and Sunday's (second) investiture sessions will be anything more than a act of protocol, on the part of either Aragonès or Salvador Illa, that is doomed to failure. If so, a final period of up to two months will be opened for the three pro-independence parties to endorse Aragonès's candidacy and formally begin his presidency, ruling out, in passing, a call for repeat elections due to a lack of agreement.
Sànchez's announcement, which probably landed on ERC like a bucket of cold water, leaves the door wide open for an agreement "within days or weeks" - more likely the second than the first - which will bring Aragonès to the presidency but with rules spelt out that specify a return to unilateralism if there is no agreement for a new independence referendum as well as clarifying the role of the Council for the Republic, the exile body. For Junts both of these are red lines, just as, for ERC, the dialogue table with the state government is essential. On this point, Sànchez did give a wink to Aragonès - accepting, he said, without conditions and in loyalty, the table which has been a cornerstone of ERC policy in exploring negotiations with Spain.
In short, there are important pieces whose fit into the puzzle is yet to be assured and they will continue to be an obstacle if not squarely addressed, such as the role of the Council for the Republic; Jordi Sànchez has the endorsement of Carles Puigdemont and Laura Borràs, which is more than enough to maintain the current tough Junts position. Finally, it should be remembered that no matter how much the opposite is asserted, negotiations that require balancing acts always have their risks.