It is very striking to read that a survey published by the Catalonia Global Institute has calculated that more than 70% of Catalan pro-independence supporters would be willing to take part in peaceful civil disobedience actions to achieve Catalonia's independence. In fact, the exact percentage is 71.3% and the company that carried out the survey is GESOP, the opinion research agency with whom El Periódico usually works in its political polls, meaning that it can't really be suspected of imposing a pro-independence bias in its conclusions. Along with this first headline, there are three other findings that are worth highlighting: the proportion is over 60% in all areas of Catalonia, including the metropolitan area; it is more than 69% in all age groups, approaching 77% in the 16 to 29 age group; and the almost 26 point difference between the 86% of CUP voters who express their willingness to participate in a movement of this nature and the 60.8% of ERC, with the Junts figure of 72.9 % in between.
Given the balance between those who are for and against independence in Catalonia, which is usually considered in this type of analysis to consist of almost two equal halves, support from 71.3% of independence supporters would translate into the fact that approximately one third of Catalan society would be willing to take part in actions of peaceful civil disobedience, which thus implies that the number of possible volunteers for protests of this nature would be very high. The fact that this is the first survey of this nature to be carried out does not allow us to assess the situation with respect to other recent moments to find out whether the much-vaunted demobilization phrase of Catalan independence is a reality or just an impression that exists with no real base in fact.
In any case, what can be concluded is that the current state of affairs and the existing demobilization is above all a necessity of the political leaderships of the parties which, in a framework of continuous repression by the state, have taken this path in the face of the lack of a consistent, agreed and majority alternative. Civil disobedience may be an option and, in fact, there were already those who thought of a similar path during the events of October 2017, although it was ruled out, as there was a fear that the participation by sectors of Catalan society would be very uneven and would fade if it had to be extended over time. In fact, the Tsunami Democràtic platform took some actions, such as the blockage of El Prat airport, but it then immediately retreated, causing great confusion and enormous damage to the public response that was taking place.
Nothing is the same as in 2017, starting with the situation of the parties, which preach one thing and do another and are powerless to put their promises into practice. The fiasco over the former member of parliament Pau Juvillà was the latest failed attempt by ERC, Junts and the CUP to respond to the repression and a court decision, and the only thing that has survived is the dispute between the parties to reverse the case of the CUP parliamentarian. With the three parties in mutual combat as they are today, I doubt that there is any path they want to agree to, because if there is one thing they have got used to, it is, above all, engaging in permanent argument, even if it leads nowhere.