As from Tuesday midnight, electoral law forbids the publication of electoral surveys. The phenomenon is so widespread that the only surveys known to public opinion are those published abroad, which circumvent the current legislation and which, in one way or another, end up being published here. There are also —in a much more selective way, but they also end up being known— the surveys commissioned by political parties and some large Ibex-35 companies. It is a curious prohibition that is permanently circumvented and, now, with social networks, even more so. It seems the whole political world is comfortable with this situation of privilege and legality, while years go by and nothing is done. The political caste always sees itself a few steps above the rest.
The Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), Spain’s publicly-run opinion survey agency, is directed by socialist José Félix Tezanos ever since Pedro Sánchez arrived at La Moncloa palace, and he has turned it into a real scam of electoral forecasts. The last one took place during the last municipal elections, when he awarded the victory to the PSOE, and the PP won with a margin of over three points. Now, the CIS has entered the scene again. Its forecast is the only one that predicts a win by the Spanish prime minister, with a difference of over one point: 32.2% for the PSOE against 30.8% for the PP. At a time when a veritable flood of surveys and daily trackings are being published by many media, it is the only forecast which awards him the win, in a situation which can only be understood because of the expectations of a government change in Spain.
In Catalonia, Tezanos' failures are also counted by elections. Without going any further, in the last Barcelona municipal elections he predicted a victory by Ada Colau (11–13 councillors), followed by Jaume Collboni (10–12 councillors) and Xavier Trias (8-9 councillors). The May 28th elections' results are well known: Trias (11), Collboni (10) and Colau (9). How can he have not resigned yet? Can such a crude use of an official body that once had great prestige in its predictions be understandable? Well, he has not resigned because in Spain there is a huge confusion between official and party organizations, and a ruler like Sánchez usually makes a scandalous use of official bodies, which have always had a bias towards the ruling party in Spain, but had not until now reached the current extremes.
While Pedro Sánchez tries to prevent the absolute majority victory of PP and Vox, the campaign faces its last days before ending on Friday midnight. Everything indicates that the Popular Party, with the support of Vox, remains slightly above the absolute majority; the PSOE fails to reduce the PP's advantage and the two Spanish left-wing parties have fewer seats than Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party. In Catalonia, the PP fights for second position with Esquerra and Junts, nobody disputes the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) victory. However, it will be by a closer margin than some initial forecasts predicted, and the result of the pro-independence block may be the worst in many elections. The turnout forecast in Spain is high, and in Catalonia, a complete unknown due to the response to the calls for abstention.