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Everyone knew that president Pere Aragonès would not have it easy in Parliament with the minority support of just 33 deputies, those of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), supporting his government. Whether this would be seen from the very start in the Catalan chamber was an unknown that had to be revealed, and indeed it has been. The first plenary session has made it crystal clear the change that has taken place since the departure of Together for Catalonia (Junts) from the Catalan executive, as decided by the party's grass roots, not even two weeks ago. ERC will have to scrape and scramble, since the legislature is in doubt if it does not reach an alliance with the Catalan Socialists (PSC) of Salvador Illa or recover the partners who have resoundingly abandoned it, after the Republicans themselves placed a banana skin which made Junts slip straight to the exit door. There is, for now, no variable geometry, because for that you need partners with whom to practice it, and no one seems to want to dance with Aragonès.

Contradicting the maxim that, in opposition, one gets very cold, the Catalan government had a first taking of the temperature this Wednesday with several tests in a single day. First, with the explanations given in the chamber of the recent government reshuffle: it had no ally, and there were 102 MPs against 33. Then, the first legislative activity of the Catalan executive in its new phase, which had reached Parliament after avoiding all the pitfalls, and it fell. This was the Statistical Plan of Catalonia, for which the previous Catalan economy minister, Jaume Giró, had managed to obtain the unanimous support of all the parties except Vox in the economy committee. This result was reversed and the bill was left with 33 votes in favour, 59 against (PSC, Comuns, Ciudadanos, the PP and Vox) and 39 abstentions (Junts and the CUP). Third, the tone of the oral questions to the government went up several decibels, the same as for those asked to the ministers. One of them, Joan Ignasi Elena, is at risk of parliamentary censure after the last week's changes in the leadership of the Mossos police.

As if that wasn't enough, the PSC showed its claws over the issue of the budget, in an attempt to bring Aragonès closer to its position and force him into an agreement that ERC rejects, as it fears that in the end it will be a trap. Socialist spokesperson Alicia Romero for the first time included the presentation of a no confidence motion as part of her preamble of possible responses if the government opts to simply extend the existing budget. It seems, in principle, impossible for that idea to prosper, but in politics the word impossible should be used very sparingly, since someone probably said the same to Mariano Rajoy over the no-confidence motion he faced from Pedro Sánchez and we know how that turned out. This Thursday Aragonès can be predicted to continue on his path of sorrows in the Parliament even though ERC will try to put on a brave face and the president himself will be in Brussels interviewing a couple of European commissioners.

In this political situation, which has a relationship of communicating vessels with Spanish politics, much will depend on what happens to the Pedro Sánchez government's budget, with the period to register a party's intention to reject the entire budget (known as an "amendment to the entirety") ending this Friday. The PSOE and ERC are negotiating to complete a Spanish budget agreement with the counterweight being the amendment to the Spanish Penal Code regarding the crime of sedition. With one drawback: that at the most, the PSOE could undertake to modify this law by means of the appropriate parliamentary procedure, which is not speedy, and which it could always back out of, if some problem arises. And it should also be borne in mind that, if approved, this does not comprise the often-referenced "dejudicialization" of the Catalan conflict, since it does not affect the past, but only the future. In any case, there could be an individualized request for a sentence review, which in no case provides a guarantee of a reduction for 100 oer cent of those affected, since with the tortuosity of Spanish justice, who knows if other crimes included in the same sentence will not also be adjusted to have a more severe punishment. Many uncertainties, therefore, in a project that will never be resolved if there is no amnesty.

In short, scenarios too volatile for a minority government that will need to find a lever of support, something difficult to see today, since it never rains but it pours, and what is certain is that that lever will not be Junts.