Although it is still remarkable that the party that proposed the amnesty law - together with the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) - voted against its most important political initiative of this legislature, the Together for Catalonia (Junts) move was widely announced in advance. It was public knowledge that if the bill was not amended to avoid the serious legal loopholes in the text which create a path for new accusations of terrorism by the National Audience judge Manuel García-Castellón and of treason by Barcelona Court No 1 judge Joaquín Aguirre, the Catalan pro-independence party would not give in. So why the uproar once it was confirmed that the Socialists (PSOE) had not changed their position?
Obviously, the Socialists do not come out well in the final photo of the day and they have a huge internal problem, affecting the justice and presidency minister Félix Bolaños, who the pro-independence parties hold responsible for the lack of agreement. One of their investiture allies has, at least provisionally, left them in the lurch and, naturally, this is anything but pleasant. But beyond the outcome of the vote, nothing is definitively over and time has been bought to find a solution in the next 30 days. The rejected text will return to Congress's justice committee, which will then have fifteen days to make changes, in accordance with the provisional model that the same committee approved. The solo amendments proposed by Junts and ERC respectively will also come into play, along with those transacted between Junts and ERC and between Junts and the Basque Nationalists (PNV) that were voted on and rejected in the plenary session this Tuesday. Fifteen days later, a new plenum will have to be held in the lower house and the plenum will be voted on again.
In the meantime, the Galician elections, scheduled for Sunday 18th February, will have passed, in which the People's Party (PP) have at stake the continuity of their autonomous community government. The polls are in their favour, in theory, but since they need an absolute majority of seats to remain in power, their margin is slim and any seat lost could move them to the opposition. This hypothesis, if it ends up becoming real, would open a crisis in the PP, given the fact that Alberto Núñez Feijóo is Galician himself and the precariousness of his leadership, vulnerable to a stumble. The Socialists, who are specialists in turning necessity into a virtue, have surely already begun to think about what spin to put on this defeat in Congress, even if it is by saying that they have their limits and have been adamant in not giving in to the demands of Junts.
Once the current storm abates, it is more than likely that the PSOE and Junts will find a way past the raging torrents they are facing now
Since in politics a month is an eternity, once the current storm abates, it is more than likely that the PSOE and Junts will find a way past the raging torrents they are facing now. Because not to do so would be the interruption of the legislature, a hypothesis, which, seriously, neither of them foresees, since rupture is not a solution that is on the table. The Sánchez government will have to propose solutions that are satisfactory for Junts and here the options are not wide, but they exist. In any case, they cannot be botched improvisations to get past the obstacle, like some of the ones that appeared on the path this Tuesday and which have no political future. It would also help in the need to build a climate that does not currently exist for the public prosecutors to get moving on Operation Catalonia in view of all the information published these last three weeks. But not exclusively over the case of their former fellow prosecutor, Martín Rodríguez Sol.
During the month that lies ahead until a new amnesty vote in the plenary of Congress, it is very likely that the Spanish judiciary will offer something more than new evidence in their opposition to the amnesty. We will have to keep an eye on both García-Castellón and Aguirre. Above all, in the first place, it should not be ruled out that the judges will offer new headlines in the days to come.